Maybe Massalai was right after all

[Boston]

this article appears in todays marketwatch section of typically less than interesting Yahoo finance pages

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bud...nd-marketwatch

The articles refers to the variables as insignificant in altering the outcome.

the following two excerpts point to the impending reality

The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the "Age of America" will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.

And it's a lot closer than you may think.

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

Put that in your calendar.

It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world's hegemonic power.

and

In addition to comparing the two countries based on exchange rates, the IMF analysis also looked to the true, real-terms picture of the economies using "purchasing power parities." That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.

Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America's share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China's would reach 18%, and rising.

Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China's.

Naturally, all forecasts are fallible. Time and chance happen to them all. The actual date when China surpasses the U.S. might come even earlier than the IMF predicts, or somewhat later. If the great Chinese juggernaut blows a tire, as a growing number fear it might, it could even delay things by several years. But the outcome is scarcely in doubt.

This is more than a statistical story. It is the end of the Age of America. As a bond strategist in Europe told me two weeks ago, "We are witnessing the end of America's economic hegemony."

We have lived in a world dominated by the U.S. for so long that there is no longer anyone alive who remembers anything else. America overtook Great Britain as the world's leading economic power in the 1890s and never looked back.

And both those countries live under very similar rules of constitutional government, respect for civil liberties and the rights of property. China has none of those. The Age of China will feel very different.

Now I realize that this is not the kinda thread that typically lasts long on a forum dedicated to boating but the implications in the world economy are pretty extreme. Only rising energy costs and a rethink of world trade policies influences on society is even going to put a dent in the consequences of a blatantly communist country being in control of a majority of the money. Money = power and China's military is growing at its fastest pace in decades.

Ya gotta wonder what the new order will look like and if there is a place left for a live aboard to hide away

[Poida]

No world power lasts indefinately the Romans, Greeks, England all had their turn. China is a capitalist country only the type of government is different. Western Countries would be well advised to adopt some of their policies if they want to compete against them.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Boston

China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016

I thought it would be sooner..

[PAR]

It's ridiculous to think China will have much of a role in the world until it actual starts to do something. It's artificially propping up it's currency, it has no significant political roles, other then theft in the world arena. It's humanitarian efforts are shameful, it's political intolerance can't be ignored and eventually it's sale of it's economic woos to the rest of the world will come back to haunt them. Do you think the world has a job problem or in reality has China exported it's unemployment problems to it's favorite importers?

By "do something" I mean it's not attempted to undertake any of the worlds significant issues. Many first world countries, much smaller then China have repeatedly stepped up and arm wrestled the big issues facing the global society. China has repeatedly stood on the side lines, steeling the major players blind when their not looking, rather then enter the world arena. Though it suggests it's an open society, it's clearly not and any attempts to flex it's #1 status will just result in cold shoulders, from the likes of those that have felt the economic sting of their thievery.

Maybe in 2016 the USA can step aside and not supply European country's that haven't any military budget, in favor of a Chinese run NATO? Let China send billions to it's enemies as well as it's friendly neighbors. Let see China enact free trade agreements that they actually adhere to.

Pleeease, they're decades behind the first world nations in most every category used to compare modern societies.

The Chinese are the "Ferengi" of the globe and though they'll have some economic might for a while, unless huge and drastic changes are made in the way they do business and treat people, a short lived affair no doubt.

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by Poida

No world power lasts indefinately the Romans, Greeks, England all had their turn. China is a capitalist country only the type of government is different. Western Countries would be well advised to adopt some of their policies if they want to compete against them.

Is compete the right word? perhaps thats the problem, it isnt a competition, we all live on the same planet --we all have to get along together. The first class section does not get there any quicker, it has to wait for the rest of them.

And India is waiting patiently.

Then the Far East.

Its no shock to me, America has been going down the tube for years.

Guy on TV last night talking about Obama seemingly ignoring Americas greatest problem,--- debt.

[Dean Smith]

Masa was no visionary , it has been obvious for years
Par is correct on SOME points
They are sly , they have no standards, they lie, cheat and make no mistake they will gobble up Australia when it suits
I bought a die and extrusions
Once the first shipment landed they then changed the rules, next time you have to buy 10 times as much
They also manipulate markets
They are very powerful and must be feared
They treat fellow humankind like ****
In Russia if a child is abused on street you are in trouble from a 100 Babushka and in China, beat a child to death on the street nobody cares
from Dragon ANDBear and comparison written in 1988 abt the two cultures

[cthippo]

I think it's very possible to overstate this. China has 4 times the number of people as the US, and a rapidly expanding middle class (as opposed to our shrinking one). A lot of their economic growth these days is being driven by internal demand, which means that it's not a zero-sum equation. They have the largest population of any country in the world by a fair margin, makes sense that they would also be in the running for the largest economy.

That growth is also providing a market for US goods, and as people have more money to spend they will get pickier and want more imported goods. As more and more of China's production capacity goes to internal consumers the amount available for export declines and prices increase as do wage pressures. This is already happening which is why jobs that would have once gone to China are not going to Vietnam and Malaysia. Sooner or later, perhaps within my lifetime, they're going to run out of people in the world willing to work for nothing and then the economics of outsourcing will begin to change. A lot of this will be driven by Chinese and Indian demand for cheap imports, which is going to raise labor prices globally.

Once Foxconn and Nike set up in Africa because everyplace else is more expensive, you'll know the revolution is near.

[Dean Smith]

thanks to the gutless person who took 11 pts anon
has he been there, has he read the book>
this is exactly what is wrong with bd net. In these open threads no rep should be given at all
never no matter who says what will I ever post neg pts
My first post in this thread came from a study and reading a very long study of China and talking to people who do business there

[Frosty]

All the above may be true --its does'nt matter, throw in Afganistan too and its just the same --we all move forward together.

If we don't we all get dragged back like the middle east is doing to us now.

Dont forget China has no dominant religion holding back scientific progress where as US have to suffer the church to think about it for 100 years.

You would think we would have enough History and mistakes to see the way forward.

[Poida]

Jeez Frosty you do believe in an ideolistic world. Nothing ever progresses without competition.

Comapnies compete in the market place as too contries compete in the world market. Our Prime Minister (not our choice) is in China at the moment, or may have just left, but trade would have definately been on the agenda and competing against other countries in regard to iron ore and wheat trade.

Dean, don't worry about negative points they are designed to allow low life morrons to vent their frustrations for being losers.

Strangely my last post was made before I read the article I was supposed to read before commenting and it may have looked as if I was simply copying it. However that has been my opinion for a while now and any such article did not come as a suprise to me.

But this is an interesting discussion and further input would be great.

[Wynand N]

Originally Posted by Dean Smith

Masa was no visionary , it has been obvious for years...............
They are very powerful and must be feared

No surprises here In fact, I predicted the Chinese domination way back during December 2004 and here is the link;
Business Opportunity

[PAR]

China will become the largest economic empire soon, but they still don't do anything. Their "scientific research" is decades behind the first world nations. Every single "advance" they market is a stolen industry trademark of someone else. They shot down a satellite a few years ago, bragged heavily about it, even though they knew the damage it would cause to other orbiting satellites, they did it anyway. We managed the same feat 40 years previously and intentionally targeted an odd orbit satellite, hitting it in a location where it would immediately fall from orbit, harmlessly into the ocean.

They haven't done anything meaningful yet. Not internally, not externally, they've just stolen and manipulated their way to the head of the line, but they're still a third world country where most of the people still have dirt floors in their living room and a surprisingly large number of people still live in caves!

Look, they have to do something and I might suggest for themselves first, as they've butchered, belittled and oppressed their own horribly. This would be a good place to start. No one is moving to China to seek their dream, but America is still the place where you can come, bust your ass and make a real life, maybe even make it big. This isn't the case in China, nor India, though I think India has a better shot at it soon then China.

[Boston]

Which is all why they are so scary, they don't care. Makes them really dangerous, specially now that they have money.

Added:

Originally Posted by Boston

I don't typically complain about the whole points thing but someones got me all wrong if they think I'm a racist of any kind

the reference is towards their gubment

[Wynand N]

Originally Posted by PAR

but they're still a third world country where most of the people still have dirt floors in their living room and a surprisingly large number of people still live in caves!.....

No one is moving to China to seek their dream, but America is still the place where you can come, bust your ass and make a real life, maybe even make it big. This isn't the case in China, nor India, though I think India has a better shot at it soon then China.

Par, I understand that Americans can get paranoid at the idea of not being the super power in the very near future, but that is a fact that nothing can stop at this stage....
A past client of mine stays in China for more than a decade and the stories he told about the Chinese building up their navy with state of the art subs, ships etc will make your hair stand up and this is not a myth - governments are aware of that. For what reason would the Chinese invest so heavily into warfare machinery is the question to ask. Perhaps a showdown of strength soon to happen
But if you look at the progress the Chinese made over the last say 15 years, it is beyond belief. Just the other day Shanghai was still another typical third wold Asian port city, but look at is today! The show they presented the world of the Olympics will not easily be eclipsed and that says a lot. And many Chinese cities follows on the heels of Shanghai.

When a country has about 1.5 billion people living in 3rd world conditions, it is not easy to move all at once from squalor and cave conditions, this will take time. But if one look what China achieved in so little time its astounding. Took the USA about 500 years to get where it is today....
But as I said 6 years ago, it is all about numbers game and at this stage the Chinese have the upper hand.

Why do not many seek their dream in China Simple, the Chines are not stupid. They learned from the world. To protect a country you have to protect its culture...
Take England today - a ****** up place to be. They had opened so to speak their doors for every Tom, Dick and Harry and the Africans and Indians took advantage to that in abundance and today they reap the rewards of that. I heard from a Pommie on visit here that famous towns in Britain are now basically run over with blacks and crime. Recently they stepped up their immigration and visa requirements mainly for the African etc continents. But that is to little to late.
I believe the USA also have similar issues with certain immigrants taking over cities.

Now the Chinese are clever; their immigration / visa requirements are of the strictest in the world. Why? Then they have another ace up their sleeve - language and strange culture. Not easy for a foreigner to adapt to.

As for India?. Not in the near future. I mean, you cannot even blow a hooter to a cow in the road shitting all over without insulting the people. People that still believe cows are holy and pray to monkey gods have a long way to go to the stage the Chinese has already pass many moons ago.

[whitepointer23]

dean is right about the way the chinese treat people. i can tell you from experience. my father is married to a very nice chinese lady, she worked for a company that was involved in shonky land deals involving senior police and government officials. when she realised something was wrong she resigned. 2 years later the people involved in the crime were caught. because she had worked for them the police decided she had to return all the wages she had been paid or go to jail. her son mortaged his property and with her savings they came up with $100.000 us, which the police took without giving a reciept. a month after that they came back and took her to prison anyway. she has now been in jail for 15 months without being charged awaiting a court date which gets postponed just before it is due each time. my father takes money and food to the jail each week, he has not seen her and is not allowed to speak to her in all this time . she is allowed 1 out going letter a month but no incoming letters. one point i disagree on dean , is china taking over australia, i think the muslims will beat them on that .