Maybe Massalai was right after all

[sabahcat]

Originally Posted by bernd1972

Still far to early to leave gold for other assets...
...perhaps as long as € and $ survive.

Don´t just look at charts and performance comparisons. Precious metals are still the only money without a counterpart risk. It´s not an investment, it´s an insurance against monetary stupidity and irresponsible governments only following the desires of banks, big corporate entities and shareholder value ideals.

There are many hard assets that can be used for storing/preserving wealth.
The difference is that these other assets provide a yield, income, cold hard cash.
Gold does nothing but take up space.

[bernd1972]

Perfectly correct, but then you should also take into account that money depreciated about 20-25% per year against gold during the last years and I cannot see a change in economic, fiscal and monetary politics that seems able to reverse that trend...
Never said that the wolrd is coming to an end nor that gold should be your only investment, if you actively run a business you should also use the time to modernize, invest in production facilities or improve your products. But i would nopt feel tempted by the stock market in the sense of "buy and hold" at the moment. Oh, yes, of course you could make fast money on public debt in certain countries, but you might also have to face a default.

[Bamby]

Here's a read to occupy your time for awhile Mas

Bankers Rule the World: "The Network of Global Corporate Control"

by Stephen Lendman

Banker Occupation and Europain

[sabahcat]

Originally Posted by bernd1972

if you actively run a business you should also use the time to modernize, invest in production facilities or improve your products.

In Australia and I assume many places are in the same boat, banks arent lending easily for business, no one is buying stuff and businesses are folding left and right.

[masalai]

Thanks for the alternate views... I suppose my interests lie in parallel to slightly divergent paths as I AM NOT INVESTING (NO MONEY) and ignore those pleas to invest in all manner of schemes... I find economic trends and underlying positions as they seem to bend the mood of the broader populace, - are my interest and the excessive global debt burdens are a major concern to me...

Whilst debt continues to be created and economies seem to persist under rapidly increasing burdens of non-payable debt, my mind cannot accept the viability of such systems into the 2 to 10 year future timeline - something has gotta give soon.... I see my future in returning to farming in the islands to the north and east of the Coral Sea...

I guess good money can be made in Day-Trading but the risks are very high and the big players can so easily manipulate most all the markets... We carefully selected real estate opportunities and did very will in capital gains, but now find that the market has turned, in the better suburbs where we would like to live... I also did reasonably in other investments which are all closed in preparing for the next 20 plus years...

I am still looking for other analysts who offer a free newsletter and know all have a bias and sell stuff (and offer market advise for those who pay a fee for their research) - Casey Research, Gerald Celente and his "Trends Research", "Elliot-Wave" theory, "Financial-Sense", GATA seem to offer a reasonable variety of news and information... Yes and all have their biases, but reading between the lines or filtering out their marketing is not difficult... There are of course lots of others with PortPhillipPublishing being the only free one I have found in Australia and "The-Market-Oracle" the only one I have found in England/Europe... I find the mainstream media are too full of sensationalism, motherhood-statements and psuedo Reality programming to be seriously considered as news sources... The Australian TV news still tracks, - The US$ price of gold but never the price in AU$, - WTCrude (when our supply is tied to the price of TAPIS from Singapore, and such like that is of no meaning or use for the average Joe who remains uninformed...

I really like the style of the letters from Bill Bonner, Maryland, USA (found in http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/ and also I presume the USA site)...

Hi Bamby,
Thanks for the link, those sentiments and views are not unfamiliar and seem to address similar concerns to what worries me... I guess I am looking for other readers to submit FREE links to essays / regular newsletters of reasoned analysis with maybe divergent perspectives to that which I am accused of "ramming down others throats" (in the vain hope of attracting the sort of links to present their views and opinions)...

[masalai]

Hi Sabahcat,
Further to your point, my understanding is that Australian banks are mostly heavily dependant on offshore borrowings to service asset needs for their home-loans markets and business investment finance facilities... That means borrowing from the US Fed, USA and European banks for their operating funds... (I am not good at the technical jargon, but I assume you get what I mean...) Anecdotally I am aware of many businesses that are having a very difficult time, especially the key small business sector...

[Bamby]

Anecdotally I am aware of many businesses that are having a very difficult time, especially the key small business sector...

If you reviewed the link entirely I just posted maybe or more likely probably they are having problems "by design". Likely the bankers want them but don't actually want to pay for them, so financially starve them and obtain them for pennies on the dollar...

[masalai]

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/sha...id/2011/12/16/ OK OK I know you folk do not like this mob but I feel this essay is worthy of a read as it does a good job of explaining the general systems used in the back end of the banking system... It is almost worthy of a copy and paste (for which I have permission with the proviso that the link is provided and the author/date included..(, except Jeff or the other "hall monitors" may object...

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edi...-john-hathaway is another of my favourite links as there seems to be a diverse array of other opinion also linked, a few quotes and jokes...
""I have no idea when the next rally in gold and silver will begin, or how far it will be allowed to run when it does."" - - - The links I liked - with news from everywhere...

[sabahcat]

Originally Posted by masalai

Hi Sabahcat,
Further to your point, my understanding is that Australian banks are mostly heavily dependant on offshore borrowings to service asset needs for their home-loans markets and business investment finance facilities... That means borrowing from the US Fed, USA and European banks for their operating funds... (I am not good at the technical jargon, but I assume you get what I mean...)

Quite the opposite actually

Deposits have been increasing, foreign liabilities (borrowings) has been dropping off showing Australian banks as being quite healthy.

Add in the wonders of Fractional Reserve Banking and Australia has plenty of money for lending



http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2010/sp-dg-150610.html

[WestVanHan]

Originally Posted by masalai

I guess good money can be made in Day-Trading but the risks are very high and the big players can so easily manipulate most all the markets...

The risks are NOT very high.
S&P e-minis,trading one contract worth $50 a point. If you have $3000 in an account-and risking 3%- if you lose $100/or 2 points-liquidate the position.

And so what if big players are buying and selling based on sound financial reasons? Realize what they are doing,and go along for the ride.

[masalai]

Hi Westie - I meant too high for my temperament, I would become a nervous wreck as a day-trader... BP can easily exceed all health-warnings...

[troy2000]

Originally Posted by Bamby

If you reviewed the link entirely I just posted maybe or more likely probably they are having problems "by design". Likely the bankers want them but don't actually want to pay for them, so financially starve them and obtain them for pennies on the dollar...

I doubt that's really true. Why would a bank want a hardware store, a construction business or a restaurant? What are they supposed to do with them? They certainly have no expertise in running them, and they're going to get hammered trying to dump them and get some of their investment back. I'm sure they'd rather have regular loan payments coming in.

Just like no bank in its right mind would rather repossess a house than have the mortgage paid off, especially if the homeowners are upside down. They're in the banking business, not real estate. Repo'ing a house is normally an attempt to cut their losses, not a profit-making venture.

[troy2000]

Originally Posted by WestVanHan

The risks are NOT very high.
S&P e-minis,trading one contract worth $50 a point. If you have $3000 in an account-and risking 3%- if you lose $100/or 2 points-liquidate the position.

And so what if big players are buying and selling based on sound financial reasons? Realize what they are doing,and go along for the ride.

Back in 1998 when I was a meter reader, I used to read a nice neighborhood. One of the houses in it had gone completely to seed. The lawn was almost bare dirt; most of the shrubbery was dead; the paint job on the trim was looking shabby; the roof needed replacing; etc. One of the front drapes was missing, and when I walked by I could see a living room almost bare of furniture except for a computer desk and a ratty-looking easy chair, and the whole room looked unkempt and cluttered with trash and clothing. I don't remember what make of car was in the drive, but it was old and shabby, with a faded paint job.

One day I ran into the homeowner in his driveway. He almost immediately turned the conversation to day trading, and started waxing evangelical about it. He told me how that very morning he had bought something, held it for four hours, sold it and cleared $4,000.

I walked away thinking, "right, dude. That's why you can't afford to water your lawn or pay a gardener; why your old lady left you in your own fast-food wrappers and dirty laundry; and why you're driving a piece of !@#$ car -- because you're making a fortune day trading...."

I don't know how typical that guy was of amateur day traders. But I'd say he was as deluded a gambling addict as anyone to be found at the craps tables in Vegas.

[WestVanHan]

I summed up your post into 3 words

Originally Posted by troy2000

.....amateur.....gambling addict

I am neither.


Mas: fair enough.
How did you sleep with OZ of gold laying about? If gold fell $30 when it was $1000..that's 3%...and it would do that several times a day.

[Boston]

Originally Posted by WestVanHan

3500%?

Assuming a buy and hold strategy,the last time gold was at ~$50 was around 40 years ago.

and over that 40 years just think of the money not made by carefully playing a shorter termed market.

I'm convinced

gold is a short term investment in periods of volatility, but as a long term investment, not so much.

I like the way Soros played it not to long ago when he made his exit speech and then sold off his gold.