A grumpy old bathplug raves

[the1much]

hey,,,our economy is on the right track!,,,,,,,just that our train aint moving hehe

[Meanz Beanz]

The fact is that the GDP number is adjusted for inflation (GDP deflator), lie about the inflation numbers and you automatically pump GDP. People like John Williams at Shadow Gov Stats work out the CPI a few ways, including methods used under previous administrations. Anyway the net result is price inflation in the US probably nearer 12%. Plug that number into the GDP calcs and the US is in recession and has been for a number of years. Some where in the Fed or the BLS they know the truth, the game they play appears to be divide and conquer, preserve the "happy" psychology at all costs lest recession mentality grabs hold. + it just don't look good on the pollies CV's i.e. Not on my watch pal!

Beanz Meanz Brain Fartz

[masalai]

So why dont that shrub get off the track...??? and let the train move...

[the1much]

he wouldnt feel as powerful

[Meanz Beanz]

I don't believe that this economic problem is a result of the approach of any particular side of politics, this is in fact the result of politics in a democracy. Bear with me for a sec... basically it is "not on my watch" syndrome, both parties know that ultimately "its the economy stupid" and that they have the tools to juice the economy short term albeit at the peril of the long term (loose money supply). They know that they will only be remembered for the short term, the here, the now, simply because the public has a very shallow understanding of economics, so they roll out the punch. When they leave office and the next admin arrives it is faced with a sober up call (pain) or the lets keep partying call. Truth is for the first part of a term they tend to sober up a little but come election time the booze is flowing and we are doing lines off of strippers bellies all in the name of reelection. Point is we never really sober up and each cycle leaves us a little worse for wear until finally one day the "body economic" just can't do it anymore, its going to rest regardless of any amount of stimulant.... "crash" in the vernacular. Whom ever is in admin at the time didn't cause the problem, they however did contribute... this one has been building since the 50's, got off the rails in the 70's a bit but got back in gear in the 80's. This is a truly massive wave that is breaking in economic terms and is not unpredictable in a democratic western market economy.... ask Kondratieff about his long waves.

Its apart of the Achilles heel of democracy as we have come to know it, we will always vote ourselves a pay rise, vote others efforts into our pockets, vote a party, it is essentially mob rule and we know that sober individuals go mad in crowds. The US's founding fathers didn't want mob rule, they wanted the rights of the individual protected from the State, they chose the form of a democratic republic for that purpose and it was spectacularly successful until the slow process of corruption took root.

We kinda get what we vote for, basically because we are not qualified to vote on matters economic, we always go the short term over the long, no discipline in that regard... education is the answer but it will never happen... economics a core subject? never... even if that is achieved would it be the right economics, what a debate that would be! People say that there is more to life than economics and I agree, but I respectfully point out that everything in civil western society is predicated on being able to afford it. If we don't understand and protect the engine that drives our chosen lifestyle then we are on a course to fail.

So anyway M, I see it as a failure of our system and not of any particular side of politics... the system in away needs to protect us from ourselves. The answer???? Who knows exactly.... but I have an inkling it will take crisis to precipitate change at some point in our future (distant?).

Thoughts from a deeply disturbed mind

Beanz it Meanz Beanz.

[Meanz Beanz]

By the way, this cycle, its kind of a feed back loop that ups the anty each time around, the election cycle in the 50's was moderate and tempered but this thing grows in an exponential fashion until it stalls. Thus what was once quite conservative behaviour leads to outrageous excess without anyone really noticing the shift.

Dr. Al Bartlett ---> "The greatest failing of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function"

It leads to problems all over the place!

[Landlubber]

A little note from my old economics teacher....

The class was studing hard to pass the end of year exam. The teacher asked, would you all like to see the papers, they are in fact the same as last year, well, everyone was astounded, said yeah sure, that would be great.

The teacher then said, it does not really matter that much, the questions are the same, it is the answers that are different.

As you could expect, he and I had many discussions on economic theories, Samuelson Economics was the book in vogue at the time, and he and I would argue for hours after class, trying to convince each other of our relative points, neither of us ever won.

[the1much]

you damned smartasses!!,,,chit,,only class i took was art,,,,,i got kicked out the second day,,,,fer tracing! hehe
so someone like me that refuses to vote,,,and LOVES to argue "a point" and think money is way over rated,,,should,,,,,,,maybe live on a mountain,,,like Grizzley Adams hehe

[Meanz Beanz]

Originally Posted by Landlubber

...trying to convince each other of our relative points, neither of us ever won.

So it seems it will be the way for ever... power and politics will always distort the lense of economics.

Personally the Austrian School makes sense to me and gybes with my experience of life but alas it has been marginalised, discipline it seems is not de rigueur.

Money is derided but essential in our societies. I think that most mistake the lust for power as a lust for money, the lines blur but power is the evil twin, money is the functional tool IMO. Beware control freaks!

And elitist insecure knowledge Nazis, as unlikely as it is you will read this post you know who you are!



MBz

[Landlubber]

I am very lucky, I have no money problems, as I have no money.

[safewalrus]

Snap!

[Meanz Beanz]

Originally Posted by Landlubber

I am very lucky, I have no money problems, as I have no money.

LOL, glad you think its that simple

[Landlubber]

Heinz,

I learned a long time ago to worry about the things I can do something about, there is no point worrying about things that you can do nothing about.

[Meanz Beanz]

IMO there are always things to be done, they differ depending on your individual situation but life always offers alternatives and opportunities, the problem seems to be recognizing them.

Anyway, to each there own, live and let live and all that.

Wishing you the best on your chosen course

[Manie B]

Landlubber i echo your statements, it is rather frightening that no matter where you are in the world, you can go from financially comfortable to "in the ****" within 6 months. This whole global oil / food / inflation thing has hit folks badly in all four corners of the world. I think what makes it worse for some = e.g. south africa is the realisation that your government / ruling party - present and future - cannot cope with difficult world economies, they simply dont have the capacity to plan ahead. Sad thing is that ALL THE POLITICIANS ALL THE TIME LIE, we were under the impression that our country was reasonably on track, NO WAY FORGET IT.

I know the yacht clubs and pubs (and this forum) only appeals to a certain segment of the population, and i am one of them, but we do remain well informed compared to others and boy oh boy we are all in for a VERY difficult time over the next 10 years.

And i am not even sure anymore where it could be better, to me everywhere sucks, maybe time to change the ideas, build a small 28ft sloop, park of at small holiday destinations and do "handy man" jobs, which basically leaves me divorced? So i will keep on dreaming, drink whisky while i can, and rot in hell

Aneeewaaay have any of you bunch worked / played / stayed in Chile? Read about it and seems fair?