Global Warming? are humans to blame?

Discussion in 'All Things Boats & Boating' started by hansp77, Sep 11, 2006.

?

Do you believe

  1. Global Warming is occuring as a direct result of Human Activity.

    106 vote(s)
    51.7%
  2. IF Gloabal Warming is occurring it is as a result of Non-Human or Natural Processes.

    99 vote(s)
    48.3%
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  1. troy2000
    Joined: Nov 2009
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    troy2000 Senior Member

    You're trying to tell us that cooler temperatures for a 15 month period somehow prove global warming has ended, and the world is now cooling instead. Please.... 15 months isn't a fart in a windstorm, when it comes to the timeline for climate change.:rolleyes:

    Not to mention that NASA's Earth Oservatory website directly contradicts you, leaving me to conclude you're either misunderstanding or misrepresenting what NOAA's website says.

    Here's what NASA says about 2011.
    It also says,
    Let's see. Yobarnacle on boatdesign.net, or NASA on its Earth Observatory page. Who to believe... who to believe... hmm... think I'll go with NASA this time.

    But I'm not going to call you 'dishonest' or a 'liar,' or any of the other terms you like to throw around. I'll settle for 'sadly mistaken.':)
     
  2. Yobarnacle
    Joined: Nov 2011
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    I think I need to remind some of you, some BASICS of science.
    You probably won't accept my explanation though. :)
    Science is investigating how nature/ the world/ the universe, works. Scientific method is:
    1.Ask and define the question.
    2.Gather information and resources through observation.
    3.Form a hypothesis.
    4.Perform one or more experiments and collect and sort data.
    5.Analyze the data.
    6.Interpret the data and make conclusions that point to a hypothesis.
    7.Formulate a "final" or "finished" hypothesis.


    One methodology used in analyzing science, is reduction to a common denominator. Simplification to basic terms. Classification, families and species as used in biology is an example. More examples:
    Scientists look for the smallest sub-atomic particles. Scientists discovered/created the periodic table of elements in chemistry.

    I understand mathematics, I have a degree in math. I took courses in analytical geometry and mathematical analysis. I understand graphs very well. :) Math is the ONLY empirical science! :)

    Graphs can be usefull when constructed to view large amounts of data and simplify the comparison to other similarly large data sets. Trends can easily be seen. Mean and average can be quickly determined. Anomalies easily identified.
    Different types of curves are generated by different formulae. Merely seeing the type of curve, tells you (the mathematician) the class of formula it contains or that generated it.
    In calculus, sets, limits, and functions can be determined or approximated by analyzing graphs.

    Graphs can be used somewhat like a math microscope. Infinitely small numbers and number sets, can be expanded and viewed.

    There are SOME things a graph CAN NOT do.
    Since graphs are a simplification process, a reduction method, DETAILED information can NOT be derived from them.
    Neither graphs nor mathematic models, can take the place of observation.
    Observed reality ALWAYS takes precedence over models and predictions and extrapolations.

    Global warmists, both professional scientists and amateur disciples, have claimed the MODELS are more important than observed data.

    This violates BASIC scientific method and principles.
    It's dishonest.

    Go to the observed data for proofs and the detailed information. Graphs won't serve you in this capacity.
     
  3. Yobarnacle
    Joined: Nov 2011
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    I'm indeed saddened by the misinformation I witness on this thread. If I'm mistaken in the OBSERVED SCIENTIFIC DATA I post, please refute it. You can't refute detailed data with simplified graphs. Graphs are incapable of and not designed to provide detailed data. Just generalities! Data can be used to generate graphs. Not vice versa!
     
  4. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    The first step to solving any issue is first recognizing that there is one. Some on this site seem to be having trouble comprehending the basics of climate shift, let alone be able to accept the actions required to resolve it. :idea::idea::idea::idea: There are several other threads which delve into possible solutions.

    I have however suggested that the oil and gas industry be required to clean up its mess and be forced to allow other forms of energy to flourish. And maybe suggested that by allowing the oil and gas industry to interfere with the election process they are effectively stalling any effective change. My bet is if the consumer was offered viable alternatives, they'd flock to them. see, who killed the electric car.
     
  5. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    from Boston
    Issues are "political" issues. "actions required to resolve it" are "political" agendas.

    It's EXACTLY what I've been accusing the warmists.

    In "science" there is no "issues" or "actions to resolve"!

    Review scientific method AGAIN!

    1.Ask and define the question.
    2.Gather information and resources through observation.
    3.Form a hypothesis.
    4.Perform one or more experiments and collect and sort data.
    5.Analyze the data.
    6.Interpret the data and make conclusions that point to a hypothesis.
    7.Formulate a "final" or "finished" hypothesis.

    Not a single word or phrase in scientific method is synonomous with, or can rationally be interpreted as "issue" or "action to resolve"!
    Kaching!

    Catastophic Global Anthropogenic Warming is POLITICS posing as science. It attempts to adorn itself with the credibility of science while adopting the ethics of politicians. Disgusting!
     
  6. troy2000
    Joined: Nov 2009
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    troy2000 Senior Member

    What you said was, "Then I post fron NOAAs website, which IS the main USA weather/climate scientists.
    That the average global temperature for 2011 and the 1st quarter of 2012 (and 2008) are the coolest global temperature averages since turn of century."

    My bad; I still have a tendency to think of 1900 as 'the turn of the century.'

    But when the data shows that nine of the ten hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, and 2011 is one of them, I think it's a little misleading to carry on about it being the coolest year since the turn of the century.
    I fail to see that 2011 'only' being the eighth, ninth or eleventh-hottest year since 1880 somehow disproves an overall upward trend.
    NOAA isn't the one spinning NOAA's data to pump some sort of major significance into a fifteen-month period, and claim it shows we're in a cooling trend; Yobarnacle is. NOAA itself would never say such a cockamamie thing.

    I repeat: you're putting a ridiculous amount of spin on the fact that last year was a little cooler than the years immediately preceding it. The truth is that it was still one of the hottest years in modern history. Siezing on it as proof of some sort of cooling trend is nonsense.

    And whatever spin you try to put on global temperatures, there's no doubt whatsoever about something else: CO2 emissions last year did set record levels -- thereby 'exceeding worst-case scenarios.' You might argue about what you think that's going to do to our climate, but it's a simple fact.

    By the way, what was all that about drawing data from graphs? I don't remember doing it.....
     
  7. Yobarnacle
    Joined: Nov 2011
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    Troy
    All this hoopla for several pages of posts was about three related topics. But whether global warming is real or not, WASN'T one of them. :)

    ONE. There was objection to my calling Boston a liar. I produced data of recent cooling, to prove we were NOT experiencing temperatures exceeding worst case scenarios. I don't think high CO2 is a scenario. Worst case scenarios usually deal with disasters or consequences, not with causal factors. I don't believe CO2 is a causal factor, but it certainly can't be BOTH causal and consequence! :)
    TWO. Whether or not, there is believable evidence of a grand conspiracy involving many strategems, (one strategem being GW) dedicated to the destruction of the USA, and a result, establishment of a global government.

    Three. Would a global government be bad or good or maybe OK, or total tryranny.

    You don't post charts/graphs, or not often.
    You defended Boston posting graphs and claimed my posting data had no credibility. So, I explained the limitations of graphs and superiority of observed data. :)

    Ultimately, I re-iterated CGAW was politics posing as science. This was in response to Boston, once again, claiming we don't see the issue or the necessary resolutions.
    That's not correct. I, and others see but don't AGREE with the issue, and don't see justification for ANY drastic measures.

    Am I more clear now? :)
     
  8. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    LMAO :p:p:p:D:D:D:p:p:p:D:D:D

    yikes, more drivel about cooling eh, :) not to engage the lunacy but if we go to the NASA GISS Temp data page and look for ourselves we see a very clear "warming" trend.

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

    looking at any of the numerous graphs its very easy to see how the data lines up against other data and what exactly the trend is. Although it is poor science ( typical of the deniers diatribe ) to only be looking at one agencies data set, when we have four to compare. Its a no brainer, we're warming and warming very fast. Literally thousands of times faster than in the high Permian extinction event that killed off everything down to a few pounds, as pointed out numerous times in previous posts.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    There is absolutely no cooling in sight and any suggestions to the contrary are wildly mistaken.

    Its a specious argument Troy, don't waste your time.

    Love B
     
  9. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    There is absolutely NO exceeding worst case scenarios.
    I didn't yank one of your 2010 (Tied hottest on record with 2005) posts to wave in your face, but an extravagant claim you made in recent days. 2011 was cooler than most years since 2000. In fact cooler than every year except 2008. And so far, January thru March 2012 is the coolest first quarter in last 16 years. NO COOLING AT ALL? Pants on fire!
    Are temperatures starting to trend down? We'll have to wait and see. Solar scientists PREDICT cooling temperatures from now thru 2030.
    But the question is, is it currently hotter than predicted? NO! It's COOLER than predicted, even though CO2 is greater than expected.
    But, in MY world of reality, CO2 doesn't drive temperature. Only in your fantasy world, Boston. Maybe THAT'S your worst case scenario! That cooling temperatures will destroy any basis for CO2 drives temperatures! LOL :)
     
  10. Frosty

    Frosty Previous Member

    Europe has just had one of the warmest 3 months on record.

    This is not a science test result but a news report.
     
  11. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    The US also had a mild winter. But, the AVERAGE GLOBAL temperature Jan-Mar 2012 was the coolest in 16 years. :)

    The difference between local weather and global climate.
     
  12. Boston

    Boston Previous Member

    yup and the US just had its warmest 12 month on record, but climate science is an average of all the worlds weather, not simply a look at any one area, although there are certain areas that do tend to act as guidelines for global norms, like the equatorial warm pool, the northern sea ice extent, or a few others

    I've yet to look at the raw data from last year, I'm waiting for all the major institutions that follow it come out with there findings, and collate them into a graph form. Then everyone can see just how they compare. Its only deniers who focus on just one study or only cherry picked time frames from one study. Real science is a group effort, it throws out highs and lows and it takes an honest look at whats left over. 98% of climate scientists agree that there is warming and its caused by human interaction with the climate system.

    Which is another interesting issue, of the top 50 published scientists in climate science, one is dissenting, and he is on the payroll of the oil and gas industry. Of the top 200 or so there are maybe 4, and "all" of them are also on the payroll of the oil and gas industry. So really there isn't much doubt about the theory nor is there much doubt about the motivation of those few climate scientists who hold a dissenting opinion

    Cheers
    B
     
  13. troy2000
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    troy2000 Senior Member

    So what if 2011 was cooler than the years immediately before it? It was still the ninth hottest year on record, and almost all the hotter years were those it immediately followed.

    Your claim that 2011 and three months of 2012 proves we're now in a cooling trend isn't just unproven; it's inane. If you look at a single one of those graphs you despise so much, you'll see bigger zigzags than 15 months all over the page -- but the overall trend remains up, in the long run. I see no reason why this time should be any different.

    In my world, almost all scientists say CO2 does drive temperature. Compared to them, your credibility is zilch.

    I'm going to leave the thread for a while, I think. You aren't just wrong; you aren't making sense. And you're insulting those who do make sense. Trying to discuss climate with you is like trying to discuss almost anything with Frosty...:p.
     
  14. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    You are NOT reading my POSTS Troy. Please read what I ACTUALLY say, more carefully.

    I did NOT say global warming is finished because of 15 months of slightly cooler averages. I DID say, it MIGHT be beginning a downward trend in temperatures.
    I DID say, you can NOT have temperatures EXCEEDING WORST CASE SCENARIOS and cooler than the last ten years simultaneously.
    I will add this caveat. You COULD have simultaneous cooler temperatures and exceed worst predictions IF: the worst case scenarios PREDICTED cooler temperatures. Since warmists are dedicated believers that CO2 drives temperature, it's not at all reasonable they would predict cooler temperatures and increased CO2! :)

    There is ONE more possibility I already mentioned.

    If Boston's Worst Case Scenario was the theory of CO2 drives temperature be proven wrong, then indeed , increases in CO2 and simultaneous lower temperatures would bust his bubble!
     

  15. Yobarnacle
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    Yobarnacle Senior Member holding true course

    Man made CO2 sure is a teeny tiny piece of the greenhouse gasses to get SO much blame! :)
     

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