Global Warming? are humans to blame?

I guess what I'm saying is that even a substantial increase in wind speed won't affect life aboard a boat. It's no big deal to have winds go from very calm to windy. It's actually a boon to sailing, as there is too little wind, usually.

And... You don't need to beef up a design for an expected average wind speed increase. Your boat should already be designed to take a severe hurricane style beating. Design is not done to an average, it's done to a worst case scenario and all decent boats are already designed to meet that. It's not like a hurricane is going to be stronger in the future than it is now. The worst case boats are designed to may happen more often, but that doesn't change the design.

That would be like saying that you need to develop cars that can handle 1000mph impacts just because people are crashing more.

 

your assuming that the worst case scenario isn't going to get worse. It most assuredly is.

What if that worst case scenario increased by say 30% ? Kinda starts to make a big difference at that point. Also what if those average wind speeds, or not what if, when those average wind speeds increase average wave heights. What if your constantly in conditions less conducive to cruising. Ok I've got little adult experience with being on the water and your definitely a long timer but I grew up on the cape and developed a healthy respect for the water. I'd want to be battened down a bit for heaver weather, and if its the norm rather than the exception then its going to effect my charters.

Also remember that there's been an exponential increase in the rate of change. Extrapolate that out say 20 years and you end up with conditions worsening fast enough that if you'd not planned for it ahead of time your vessel might just be stuck in port more often than not.

I realize your of a mind to stay deep when the weather hits and I agree thats a great option if you've got the right boat but what if as I said earlier those worst case scenario's are 30+% worse than they are now. Like what we are seeing with extreme wave heights in the PNW where I'll be hanging out.

 

Well, a 30% increase in current wind conditions and hurricane strength would have little effect. That is all i am saying. Taking a cat 5 hurricane and notching it up 30% doesn't really change anything. Neither does notching up a cat 1 hurricane 30%. In both instances, you move. They are very small and it is more than possible to avoid them.

As for fronts and other standard weather, they are some of the only times there is enough wind to really sail. A 30% increase would be welcome. Usually, on a sail boat, we are hoping for more wind, not wishing there was less.

Lastly, I think it's a good idea to build the best boat you can that will be strong and able to handle the rough stuff. Very important, actually. But, you don't want to take strong and turn it into over built just because there are more storms and hurricanes are stronger. You won't be in a hurricane, strong fronts pass quickly and stronger normal winds are a blessing.

And in the trades, you'd have a bit rougher ride, but you'd get there faster. Not a bad trade off.

Don't forget, also, that the vast majority of waves are not breakers, but swells. They are usually nice, gentle, rolling hills you go up and down over, even at 10 ft tall.

Just a discussion, but i am hoping to help on the boat project with this info.

 

No worries, I've heard some interesting stuff on the possible benefits, but thats very short term thinking. My take is its an overall package of changes and even if one aspect could be proven beneficial, its not a stable change and its not alone. There's lots of changes on the way, some, not in the slightest desirable. The rate of change is increasing very fast, which is what all the worry is about. These changes aren't stable. Think snow ball earth event of 600 million years ago. Or the High Permian extinction of 250 million years ago. Both classic examples of a runaway climate system. Now imagine accelerating those processes ~2,500 times

But it goes beyond just boating, its going to effect every aspect of our lives. Thing is I'd like to retire to a boat and enjoy some nice calm weather.

I could play with some numbers and show that in the High Permian event it took ~1 million years for the Siberian Traps to release enough CO2 to cause a 4°C rise in global temp. At that point it triggered the release of organic carbon, like methane locked in hydrate precipitate on the ocean floor and in the permafrost. Which raised temps by another 6°C over about a 40,000 year period and killed everything down to about 2lbs land or sea.

If you work out the temps, times and reaction, and compare that to whats going on today you end up with 1 million years to change temp 4° VS 200 years to change temp about 2° today. ( and a predicted nother 2° in about 40 years, some might argue 1° but really it makes little difference which number I go with, the results are about the same ) Quite a bit faster than in any other known period of earth history. You might be thinking OK so we've got another 2° to go before we need to worry about it. Nope, I wish that were true, unfortunately its not. In a million years the system has some time to redistribute organic carbons to more stable areas and the over all effect on them is mollified to some degree, although eventually we know the organic carbons did release and did radically alter the atmospheric chemistry enough to kill off nearly all larger life forms, say everything over 2 lbs.

But today we've altered temp by 1,000,000/200/2 = 2,500x faster than in the High Permian extinction ( 5000x+ if you include whats virtually certain to occur over the next say twenty or thirty years ) . here's the really frightening part. Organic carbon is already releasing, and its increasing faster in % than even CO2 these last ten or twenty years. Methane ( CH4 ) is up 150% CO2 is up ~30%. So we've already triggered the organic carbons and we're just entering that time period of most rapid climate change. And we did it in just 200 short years. Amazing, our only real chance is to immediately reverse the trend in CO2 and reduce the atmospheric greenhouse gas content. Otherwise the system will run away faster and faster far past the point where its "more convenient" for any of us.

even if my numbers are 100% off climate has still already changed 1,250 times faster than at any other known period of earth history.

So it goes beyond a convenient increase in some conditions, I've heard the same argument when it comes to wind farms and tidal generators. The issue is, its the same short term thinking that got us into this mess.

Sure if I built a standard boat for today's conditions it would probably do fine for say 10 or 15 years. But I plan on lasting a lot longer than that. So considering the climate shift is important if I'm going to be actually retiring on this thing. The issue you bring up of not being able to change the boat much or you just build a dog is a good one, which doesn't bode well for the state of yachting in the near future. The solution I see as being the most workable is to build a bigger boat.


I agree that building to robust a boat and you build a dog, but I might consider, as I mentioned, skinying up on the amenities and using slightly thicker ply. As well as building slightly bigger than what I think I really need. I'm sure I'd hear a lot about how you want the lightest cat possible and I'd agree, to a point. Its gotta be able to take a wave. Which brings us to the subject of the average freak wave. Now thats a frightening scenario

 

I guess that looks like it will take these changes thousands of years to induce. Thats unfortunately not the case. If methane and CO2 keep going up even at the present rate we're in huge trouble by about 2035.



If you go with the estimates which are historically low and remember when looking at these we've exceeded worst case CO2 emissions,you can see we're looking at a significant temp increase far beyond whats needed to trigger the runaway climate scenario's seen in past extinction events. We can safely look at the very top of the envelope to get our predictions, given what emissions are doing.

 

I'm not saying it won't happen (I know that's what you are used to hearing... ha ha ha), I'm just saying it'll be no big deal for boats.

 

Don't assure me that storms will get worse. Show me credible evidence. Otherwise I won't believe you.

 

its already effected the northern passage. How many boats went through last year ????? and I read a study were they expected that number to grow 100 fold next season.
which well effect the economic standing of the Panama canal to some degree. It also effects revenues along the longer route around. Means the US Canada Russia will be able to trade more efficiently for a while at least. All that melting ice is also having an effect on fisheries. Fish stocks are dropping like flies in the collapsing system. OK partly because of overfishing but also because of the degraded environment.

Its already effecting the shipping industry, won't be long before we feel it in the yachting world as well. Its virtually inevitable.

I do think from a more selfish point of view there is a simple if temporary solution, build a bigger boat. But over all, its a mess and its only going to get increasingly worse.

Eventually if the oceans go Anaerobic, which is a near certainty as well. They will be impassible as the noxious gasses being released will suffocate any surface oxygen breathers. DR J Jackson gives that situation about 30 years at the outside. See "A Brave New Ocean" lecture at Browns U if I remember. ( its a woman's college, and the presenter is damn cute )

There are temporary measures I can take to still enjoy my time on the water, but for future generations that might not be an option.

Cheers
B

 

Make hay while the sun shines. The Northwest Passage won't stay open long so we better make the best of it and do as much trade through that route as possible before its closed for a very long time.

 

Which creates untold amounts of regular environmental pollution, air pollution and water pollution.

It also adds a tremendous amount of carbon to the atmosphere.

I would know. I actually struggled with this dilemma myself. If I didn't have to earn a living with boats, but just lived and traveled on them, I would not have built a new one. I would have recycled one.

 

There's things that can be done to reduce the footprint Cat. Even eliminate it in some cases. Peanut based epoxy pretty much takes care of that score on epoxies. Plywood is far easier on the environment than fiberglass. From there its a mater of what I chose to power they vehicle with. Im my case I run on recycled fuels so again its not perfect, but its better. I'm aiming for an older IDI diesel engine, so again an opportunity to recycle and I'll probably keep the interior to a minimum of higher tech stuff.

I'm not suggesting we're going to be able to eliminate our impact on the environment. But we sure can reduce it a lot.

cheers
B

 

Hey, let's all drive electric cars. That makes a lot of sense (they run on coal).

 

Hey Boston.

I'm not trying to argue with you, please be assured of that. I just find the topics you bring up kind of interesting.

If I may comment on some of that.... since i went through it too...

I'm suggesting that building a boat is a menace to the environment, through and through. I think you are trying to rationalize that away because you want a boat. It's a hell of a conflict and I was there for about 6 months. If I didn't need the boat for work purposes, I would have bought a used boat and recycled it.

Zero impact on the environment.

I guess what I'm also kind of hinting at is that when you do build this boat you will be come part of the problem, not part of the solution. It sucks, but you will generate many tons of carbon doing that, just like I am.

It would be interesting to see one of those "carbon footprint" reports on a boat build and all its materials. I think it's a monster.


Again, not trying to start anything, but I've been in that spot... trying to think about doing the right thing for the planet and building a boat. If we didn't need to have an income, we never would have built.

 

Its a balancing act, I'm going to have an impact, no getting away from it, how do I balance that impact with all the other impacts to reduce my overall effect and start industry in a better direction. If I began running my boat on sea weed, using a pyrolysis system that cost me maybe 5K. I'd most certainly have everyone's attention wherever I came to call. Even if I ran it on old tires or waste plastic, I'd be freaking people out with using free fuel. That and I might even get paid to clean up the beaches after a storm. Ever seen pictures of the Hawaiian islands after a big blow. You can hardly walk on the beach for all the plastic. Ok I would need to be selective about the type of plastic feedstock but still I'd be out there picking up plastic and cleaning. They might look at me like I'm nuts but when they realized I'm going to process it into fuel. Might not be so nuts after all. Whats it cost to fill up a 500 gallon diesel tank at the dock these days ?

Anyway I could blither on about this one for quite a bit cause its such a great subject. the short answer is,,,,,,,,,, I'm not, we all have some kinda impact and reducing it to zero is impossible, what I can do is move my impact to a less detrimental place.

 

Great news.

Let it be known throughout the realm. Proper climate science has swept the board.

Best Australian science blog

http://joannenova.com.au/

Best Canadian science blog

http://climateaudit.org/

Best Europen science blog

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/02/27/european-blog-of-the-year-2012-tallblokes-talkshop/

Best science or technology award. Lifetime achievement award

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/26/weblog-awards-2/#comment-906288

All the so-called CAGW science blogs ------------------- nowhere.

Of course, I do not expect any of the warmist cult who troll here to acknowledge these awards, but hey, your opinions are so last season now!

Ooooooh!