Global Warming? are humans to blame?

Which is why I've always laughed at the first and really laughed at the second Frosty ole Man. It makes no difference what people "think" climate is shifting and those shifts are very clearly seen in the changing ocean conditions. Science has its head clear of its arse on this one, the public is about 50/50 or at least they are in the ignorant ole US. Even so there's no real debate about it at all.

wave heights increasing
http://www.google.com/url?q=http://...ba9W6w&usg=AFQjCNEfMDujJ4U1eAhnQQM55J8ceZJ5Bg

wind speeds increasing
http://www.google.com/url?q=http://...khqh0w&usg=AFQjCNGSV2JIwIlKB7rgIoUPG0f1-kGrMA

So clearly there is a shifting paradigm and any failure to recognize it will effect the longevity of any coastal infrastructure as well as shipping and yachting. Its no struggle at all to link climate to ocean conditions which are of vital concern to any responsible yachtsman. Any yacht designed for an area where these conditions are changing fastest had better incorporate design for the shifting conditions or it might just not be a suitable vessel for the area for any reasonable period of time.

 

So do you think I need a longer anchor chain then? Or carry more petrol in the dinghy for that extra run to shore.

I was telling the misus the other day that if the level of the sea went up the beach would be about 1 mile nearer. Ooh she says I always wanted a house on the beach.

Would this be in about another 20 years Boss because I would be really retired by then and Ide love a bit of fishing and I dot think Ille be able to walk very far.

 

sea level rise is just one aspect of climate change. The increasing wind and waves being the other main drivers of changing ocean conditions, that and increasing fresh water influx, shifting currents and eventually poison gas releases. The time frames for these changes are looking like 25 to 50 years given that the predictions are tending to err of the conservative side. So while the changes are occurring slowly now they're accelerating faster than predicted. Which means that more robust designs will be needed to keep up with worsening conditions. That and shore based structures will need to be designed in a more modular and mobile manor so that as sea levels rise they can in some cases at least be moved.

Its not going to happen overnight but maximum wave heights have already increased by about 30% in some locations in the PNW which end up effecting how many days of "clear" weather I've got to go play, once I get my *** up there and start fishing.

The problem with your beach house Frosty is the dreaded erosion factor, Once barriers are breached shorelines tend to erode quickly and unpredictably.

Cheers and best of luck with that plan.
B

 

i haven't read much of this thread so i don't know if my question has been covered. on a discovery program recently they were looking at areas of the pnw and canada where the fish have moved out . the oxygen levels are so low that most fish can't survive and the dead zone is increasing forcing the fish to move further. what i don't understand is how can one part of an ocean be deprived of oxygen, i would have thought currents would be moving new water through the area constantly. it was the scariest thing relating to global warming that i have seen.

 

Oxygen loss is not related to global warming but to something else, pollution.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypoxia_

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypoxia_(environmental))

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutrophication

"Eutrophication can be human-caused or natural. Untreated sewage effluent and agricultural run-off carrying fertilizers are examples of human-caused eutrophication. However, it also occurs naturally in situations where nutrients accumulate (e.g. depositional environments), or where they flow into systems on an ephemeral basis."

 

okay, i just assumed it was due to climate change. pretty nasty business just the same.

 

your assumption was correct. It is directly related to human activities including climate shift mostly because of all that excess CO2 we produce

if you were to look at ocean turnover, in some areas its a very slow process. Some natural crooks and crannies in the shore line may look like they turn over during the course of the tides, but in fact most of the water that went out with the tide in some cases returns again on the next. With minimal exchange with the bulk of the surrounding water.

Even in areas where there is a high rate of exchange accelerated biological action due to various forms of pollution ( IE farm run off like in the gulf of Mexico ) exacerbated by increased water temps ( higher temp water holds less oxygen ) end up so oxygen deprived that no higher vertebrate forms can exist. Its a huge concern and one which is known to be growing at a phenomenal rate. There's a really well known lecture on this called "a brave new ocean" by a guy named Dr J Jackson. Really worth watching if your curious as to how it works.

The frightening part is the natural conclusion to the process is something called Anaerobic stratification. Its happened several times before when unusual events disturbed the climate. Anaerobic stratification is best exampled by noticing all the oil shale's, blue and black slates, and some of the coal deposits, those are the result of the oceans dying, everything falling to the bottom, and decomposing Anaerobicly.

What causes it is when the oceans vertical currents stop, also known as the deep ocean turn over. The system is pretty delicate even if it does move vast volumes of water. Right now there is an effort underway to measure these currents and its not looking good. From what is known these currents are slowing, which is why there is a growing number of larger and larger anaerobic zones around the world. Finding one in the cold northern waters is particularly alarming for a number of reasons.

It is thought that the rapid influx of fresh water is diluting the upper seas, that since fresh water is lighter than water laden with salt and since it takes sometimes years for these layers to mix that the natural vertical currents that must occur in certain areas of the ocean in order to work with the ocean floors topography to drive the deep ocean current system is being adversely effected, and the currents are failing.

The other major factor that effects deep ocean currents is shallow ocean currents, which are also being adversely effected by the altering climate. Stronger winds drive taller waves and carry water to parts of the ocean that may not contain the same topographical characteristics that naturally induce deeper currents. IE again a slowing of the deeper circulatory system and a failure to get oxygen to the deep ocean.

If the deep ocean which gets all its oxygen from above is deprived of enough of that oxygen then it begins a spiral. Something dies due to lack of oxygen, then bacteria which eat oxygen bloom on the carcass, lowering the oxygen levels, more stuff dies, enabling more bacteria, and on and on. Eventually everything dies. The bacteria die off last because they are the most efficient at extracting oxygen from the water. The event results in whats called Anaerobic stratification. Its happened before and it looks like we are triggering it again.

It is the one common event in every single major extinction except one. The snow ball earth event of about 600 million years ago.

you are right to be concerned about the growing incidence of oxygen deprivation in the oceans. Its a huge concern which is unfortunately all to often unappreciated in the media

by the way the next thing that happens once the deep ocean goes anaerobic is that instead of the upper oceans producing most of the oxygen they begin to produce anaerobic by products like methane and ammonia, stuff thats definitely not conducive to surface life. When that happens, and it has in the past several times, then you get the larger life forms on land dying off as well.


anyway I hope that made some sense of it

cheers
B

The nutrient rich areas are so large and clear you can see them from space



The oxygen depleted areas can be imaged through spectral analysis



ps
In his lecture DR Jackson points out that in no uncertain terms that our oceans are collapsing at an astonishing rate. He predicts, and I really hope he's wrong, that the oceans will go anaerobically stratified, its just a mater of if it takes 20 years or 50. But his work shows that the process is well underway and that halting the process is nearly impossible. We as a species would have to address multiple huge issues immediately, CO2, farm run off, over fishing, marine pollution and ice melt. In a nut shell at best he predicts we will have an ocean system which most resembles the black sea in 50 years or less, with no surviving higher life forms other than in shallow coastal areas. His predictions thus far have been in lockstep with the most recent findings.

Its unfortunate that it has to happen that way or that even while we measure the declining conditions there are still people who refuse to see the forest for the trees.

 

On a complete side note from the Anaerobic oceans issue

Scientists are finally starting to stand up and fight back.

A recent insider job on a popular denial regimes insider trading

Now some of our most prominent people speak up about the recent and growing attacks on science itself

from

Attacks paid for by big business are 'driving science into a dark era'
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...FvbdndGphD2qKTNWg&sig2=4Dr70Laj9IlJLUXvn57mOg

The simple reality is that its against the corporate interests to support climate change mitigation. Politicians are being paid off with incredible sums of money to support the corporate interests and attack honest scientists who are struggling to get the word out that change must occur and fast if we are to preserve anything of our environment for the future.

Ocean conditions are changing fast. Wind, waves, the severity of storms, Currents. Yet the science is under attack from the businesses that make the most profit from producing the pollution thats causing these changes. Its an intolerable situation, I guess the only real question is what if anything can be done about it.

 

What total bull.

 

I'm not trying to be a brown noser or anything, but I am interested in Boston's theory that climate change will affect boating.

I'm not of the opinion that it will.

You are either in protected waters or you are at sea. I really don't see the ocean changing in any appreciable way from climate change (except the species in the ocean).

How could climate change possibly have any effect on my boating, other than deciding to change locations to get the perfect weather?

 

I don't think your trying to kiss *** Cat, its just what you believe

But consider that increased winds, significantly higher waves, larger more sever storms, stronger surface currents, weaker deep ocean currents, longer hurricane season, more sever storms traveling longer and longer paths. Its not my theory, its basic science. Fully half the effort in climate science is on the oceans and how fast, not if, its changing. How in the world could that not effect boating.

I'm equally as baffled as to how anyone could possible not account for the altering conditions in there longer term plans and designs.

your bound to have reduced revenues because of there being fewer suitable days for your boat in the deteriorating conditions. That and insurance is bound to go up due to the increasing severity of the weather and the increase in damages caused by same.

I realize there is a concerted effort by the corporate powers that be to confuse the public concerning the realities of this issue however a quick look at average peak wave heights in the PNW should dispel any questions. Or a look at average long term wind speads. I plan on retiring to the PNW and if I didn't take into account the altering conditions I'd likely find myself soon enough in a boat totally unsuited for the dangers these changing conditions present. Granted there are some instances where I'd just be stuck in safe harbor but if I want to be able to tool around safely I'd better consider the prevailing conditions at any given time. I don't have the money to build more than once. So its important I get it right the first time and consider that I'll either need to spend more days in safe harbor or build a more robust vessel.

not sure if I've nailed it yet but my latest consideration seems to me to be fairly robust. Lots of free board. good solid area to apply storm shutters, more smaller windows rather than fewer larger ones. stable platform. trawler style windows. Seems like its a lot more seaworthy than the commuter design.



I've taken some heat for wanting to beef up the typical hull some and for having so much clearance under the deck, having to compromise on weight for strength but it seems pretty obvious to me that although the cat is an inherently more stable platform its still subject to the same changes in the climate and so must change accordingly it its typical construction. I'd go heavier on the hull and skinny up on the luxuries. Ending up with a vehicle that I can make a mistake in, misjudge the weather in still make it home OK

 

give me a moment and I'll go look up some of the stuff on wind speeds

once again this isn't my theory
this is very well accepted science
I'm just studying it so I don't get caught with my pants down as things change

From MIT Climate unit
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm

or from
http://news.discovery.com/animals/birds-flying-faster-wind-speeds-120112.html

now here's the rub
while wind speeds over the oceans is increasing
there is some evidence to say that wind speeds over land are stable or decreasing slightly, due to increasing vegetation also due to climate shift. The interesting part is that the land estimates have a very good chance of turning around because of the growing desert areas might just offset the rate of altering vegetation, IE melting permafrost.

Its a highly fluid system but from what is measured so far wind speeds are increasing. This will not help power yachts nor create calmer waters overall.

I could get into currents and whats happening with them but all in all there is really very little doubt that the oceans surface conditions are changing or that it will effect yachting

 

Ok, but I'd welcome some increase in wind speeds. 90+ percent of the time there is too little wind. The weather is nearly always fine and I've never been nervous about winds or seas kicking up a bit.

I just don't see what the big deal would be for coastal type cruising over long distances.

The change can't be that dramatic. I see it as a bonus. We could get by with less sail area.

Our charters run in everything but a small craft advisory and even then, we still get paid since our boat is booked by the week. There is no way for an increase in wind to affect our revenues. An extra front or thunderstorm means a night in for our guests, then back to normal the next day.

 

Oh, half of what you are saying is that there will be more hurricanes? Again, what difference does that make to someone on a boat? Just move if one is coming your way. They are very small.

 

Hey it might help in some instances. The Russians are dancing in the streets that its getting warmer. So might the wind turbine industry people. The issue is these folks seem to think its going to stabilize at a slight increase. Uh uh, its going to spiral just like climate has always done, so sure, there will be a brief period were conditions might become more favorable to some users, but given the increasing rate of change that window won't exist for long. Before you know it, well just go check the average extreme wave height for the PNW just over the last few years. Holly molly, 30% increase and climbing, damn thats bound to effect boating in the area.

and remember increasing winds mean increasing waves, and clients get sea sick. I'd love to do charters, OK on a smaller scale than you but still do some whale watching when I can. If the waters up, its bound to be harder to spot the whales or enjoy some time on the deck sitting sipping a martini.

The changing conditions can't "not" effect boating in some way or another

"some" of what I'm talking about is concerning hurricanes which do seem to be lasting longer and following longer tracks, but the majority of the alterations are day in day out changes to the climate system. Its the daily energy available that is shifting, not just a one off event.