Global economic situation for liveaboard cruising yachties

[Zed]

Yet more bile, lovely... your starting to sound like another poster around here, hmmmm, let me think ahhh yes, I know now.

[Zed]

That should be enough now... adios my glabrous friend

[Boston]

lets at least agree to get off Mass's thread fool
you have been asked many times to take it somewhere else and I for one agree completely

believe me I have no problem with some fool wanting to get in a brawl but the polite thing to do is take it outside

you have got to be what 15 16 years old
do your folks know you are on there computer

the polite thing to do is delete all our posts from his thread and move on

I sincerely doubt you will be adult enough to comply but for what, the fourth time I suggest you not hijack this thread with your BS and that we at least bury the hatchet enough to allow others to enjoy there time spent here

stop with the idiocy and move on
Ill delete my ****
you delete yours
or is that also to difficult for you to understand

love B

[masalai]

So who was the idiot that bought 7 year Treasuries at the auction last Thursday? - http://financialsense.com/fsu/editor...2009/0601.html - When the major players abstain because of the lack of value/security, why dive in for almost worthless paper?

"Debt is your worst enemy" - http://financialsense.com/fsu/editor...2009/0601.html - I know of no other country where dept can be walked away from and minimal responsibilities for failure to honour (under Chapter 11) - bloody amazing?

[masalai]

http://financialsense.com/index.html Matt Simmons 'power-point' video & audio presentation worthy of your 30 minutes to listen and watch - His reputation in the oil industry is well regarded and he has the runs on the board to prove it... "Have we Peaked" is answered -

[Boston]

Mass I could not agree more debt is the enemy
I have been debt free for years and its a really great way to live
payed cash for everything and will on the boat as well once I get rolling n it
seems that this country is insolvent if you ask me
cant remember what the national debt is
but its huge and no way can we pay it off in the few years we have left before a few other things catch up to us
cheers
B

[Zed]

For many years bonds have been a market under pinned by the policy stance of the US's trading partners. For many years purchases have been considered uneconomic and not really making sense. It has also been suspected that the Fed has on occasion directly monetised the debt via financial vehicles in the Caribbean, relatively large purchases coming from non traditional buyers has raised eyebrows before. Now the Fed admits direct monetisation and maybe, just maybe, the bond vigilantes are actually back for good. Anyway, the point is, this is a quasi political market, what does not make sense economically probably makes sense politically.

[Zed]

[masalai]

Boston, I think I linked or posted from a link that debt and unfunded expenditure (pension and superannuation contributions that have been "borrowed by the US Govt") now total somewhere around the 60 to 70 trillion mark - - - - - What is the current annual GDP? - - - Disasterville is where you is at....

[masalai]

Zed could you please just post the link? my Pigbond narrowband cannot handle the data-load - found it http://www.youtube.com/swf/l.swf?swf...is%20imploding!

Thanks heaps...

And confirmation of your view can be found here http://financialsense.com/fsu/editor...2009/0601.html , and http://financialsense.com/fsu/editor...2009/0601.html .... - - Action is about to burst forth and fifth, but my time-machine is not working - but soon

[Boston]

no doubt we are in big trouble Mas thats why I stick to exchange trade funds
they are not subject to the individual vagaries of any single sector and so are far more predictable being an average in themselves

interesting stuff mas, my 19/20 run will be hard to beet so I think Ill stick to what works
at least for me
I know a guy who is spectacular with penny stocks in the renewable energy sector

basically the system of interest and manufacture of money is flawed
and those flaws are catching up to us fast
real fast
it was inevitable and there could be no other outcome
question is that without fundamental change
a change that was promised and now not even close to being delivered by Obummer
there is no possibility to escape the obvious
all consumer based society's have failed
eventually
( rather vague but you get the idea )
there must be a balance between production and consumption
a stable state
there is no other way for it to work
same with money
there must be a certain amount of free money injected into the system in order to make up for the interest charged on that which is lent into the system
otherwise the money all ends up at the lender
it is inevitable

[Zed]

Originally Posted by masalai

Zed could you please just post the link? my Pigbond narrowband cannot handle the data-load - found it http://www.youtube.com/swf/l.swf?swf...is%20imploding!

Thanks heaps...

And confirmation of your view can be found here http://financialsense.com/fsu/editor...2009/0601.html , and http://financialsense.com/fsu/editor...2009/0601.html .... - - Action is about to burst forth and fifth, but my time-machine is not working - but soon

Been out... I don't know why you persist with your ISP, madness, sheer madness IMO.

[Zed]

Geithner summons to China to appease the bank manager.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gei...e-bad-marriage

[RHP]

For Mas:

Black Swan Fund Makes a Big Bet on Inflation
By SCOTT PATTERSON
A hedge fund firm that reaped huge rewards betting against the market last year is about to open a fund premised on another wager: that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to hyperinflation.
The firm, Universa Investments L.P., is known for its ties to gloomy investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the 2007 bestseller "The Black Swan," which describes the impact of extreme events on the world and financial markets.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Funds run by Universa, which is managed and owned by Mr. Taleb's long-time collaborator Mark Spitznagel, last year gained more than 100% thanks to its bearish bets. Universa now runs about $6 billion, up from the $300 million it began with in January 2007. Earlier this year, Mr. Spitznagel closed several funds to new investors.
Unlike last year's sudden market implosion, inflation isn't an unimaginable event that few currently anticipate. In fact, many fear inflation right now amid government efforts to goose the economy. Universa's bet, however, is that inflation will reach levels few expect.

By opening the inflation fund, Universa is trying to capitalize on a wave of investor demand for its products, which when they're right can protect investors from extreme market moves.
The new strategy, designed by Mr. Spitznagel, aims to post big gains if inflation and interest rates take off as they did in the 1970s. Universa will invest in options tied to commodities such as corn, crude oil and copper, as well as options on stocks such as oil drillers and gold miners.

Mark Spitznagel

"We think these things are going to see massive volatility," Mr. Taleb said in an interview.
The fund will also bet against Treasury bonds, which tend to weaken in inflationary environments. Last week, Treasury yields shot to their highest level since November as prices fell on inflation concerns. Oil topped $66 a barrel. Gold is creeping nearing $1,000 an ounce.

The minimum investment in the firm's other funds has been $25 million, though it rarely accepted investments less than $100 million, a person familiar with the fund says. Similar standards will likely apply to the new fund, called the Black Swan Protection Protocol-Inflation, according to the person.
Mr. Taleb doesn't have an ownership interest in the Santa Monica, Calif., firm, but he has significant investments in it and helps shape its strategies.

The term "black swan," which has become a market catchphrase in the last few years, alludes to the once-widespread belief in the West that all swans are white. The notion was proven false when European explorers discovered black swans in Australia. A black-swan event, according to Mr. Taleb, is something that is extreme and highly unexpected.

For the new inflation fund, there are risks. As investors, Messrs. Spitznagel and Taleb have a mixed track record. The two managers wound down their Empirica Capital fund in 2004 after several years of lackluster returns.

Also, some investors are worried not about inflation but about deflation and its pernicious effects were the economy to remain stalled.

David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, a Toronto wealth-management firm, believes inflation won't take hold until consumer spending rebounds, which he thinks could take years. Says Mr. Rosenberg: "Not until the household sector expands its balance sheets are we likely to see the re-emergence of inflation on a sustained basis."

Mr. Taleb said any deflation would be matched by an aggressive move by governments to stimulate their economies, leading inevitably to an uncontrollable surge in prices.

Write to Scott Patterson at scott.patterson@wsj.com

[RHP]

For Mas 2

Dark days for the dollar
Commentary: Hide out in high grains

By Sean Brodrick - MarketWatch
JUPITER, Fla. (MarketWatch) -- In May, the U.S. dollar index cracked important support. This affects all Americans, because we are all speculating in the U.S. dollar.
If you don't think so, open your wallet. Do you see dollars there? Then you're speculating on the dollar by holding on to it. Probably most of your investments are dollar-denominated as well. Another leg down in the dollar could translate into tough times for your portfolio -- and you.
Now for the good news -- there are ways to cushion yourself against the dollar's pain. I'll give you some ideas in just a bit.
First, why is the U.S. dollar in such trouble? U.S. government deficits are ballooning, and turning a deeper shade of red -- about $1.8 trillion this year alone, and up $500 billion in two months. In fact, the U.S. government is going into debt so fast that the Fed is buying Treasuries, which is like a snake eating its own tail.
The government is doing this with good intentions, to try and keep the economy from running off the rails. But our debt is increasing so fast that the U.S. may lose its Triple-A credit rating. Losing that rating would start a downward spiral of higher rates and more debt. The Treasury thinks it can just print dollars to paper over the mess; traders are showing their displeasure by sending the dollar lower.
You know who else is getting disgusted? China. According to U.S. Treasury data, from August 2008 to March 2009, China shifted more of its purchases to short-dated U.S. Treasuries from long-term agency debt. The general trend is for less buying of long-term U.S. Treasuries. It's as if China is giving Uncle Sam a vote of no confidence.
So if China is moving away from the dollar, what does it want to use instead? China has signed $95 billion in swap agreements with Argentina, Indonesia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Belarus in recent months. The more that countries trade in their own currencies, the less they have to rely on the U.S. dollar. Other countries besides China are making similar agreements.
Even a slow, gradual turn away from the dollar will put ever more pressure on our currency and debt. It seems the writing is on the wall for the greenback.
So where should you put your money? Here are three ideas:
One is agricultural commodity exchange-traded funds. Commodities are priced in dollars, so as the value of the dollar goes down, the value of commodities usually go up. I'll leave talking about gold, silver and oil ETFs to others - let's talk about the huge potential in agricultural commodities.
Everybody needs to eat, and people in Asia want to eat more like big, fat Americans every day. Throw in the vagaries of weather, fuel prices and disease, and you have some powerful forces in a commodity that must be constantly replaced.
And this year, the pressures on harvests could be extreme.
"The 2009 growing season has gotten off to a rough start, and farmers could face their toughest year yet," says commodity trader Kevin Kerr. He's finding that a lot of farmers are bedeviled by weather that made it tough to get crops in the ground in May.
In his 2009 Agriculture Report, Kerr added: "Statistics and research show that corn yields as well as soybeans yields may drop dramatically if crops are not planted by the middle of May."
An easy way to play this move is the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund. /quotes/comstock/13*!dba/quotes/nls/dba (DBA 28.75, -0.12, -0.42%) It tracks an index composed of futures contracts on corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar.
Other funds let you specialize in various parts of the agriculture sector - the Dow Jones AIG Grains (JJG 47.28, +1.61, +3.53%) is another example. However, some agriculture funds in that same family like cotton (BAL 32.66, +0.60, +1.87%) , coffee (JO 43.12, +1.75, +4.22%) and cocoa (NIB 41.12, +0.92, +2.29%) have low volume, so be very careful.
Treasuries are another way to go. The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury fund (TBT 55.41, -0.11, -0.21%) is an ETF that aims to track twice the inverse of long-dated Treasuries -- the ones from which China is shying away. Leveraged funds can move against you with brutal speed, so be careful here as well. But if you think Treasuries are cruising for a bruising, the TBT is a good way to play that move.
Finally, you can go short on the dollar. The PowerShares DB Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN 27.10, +0.10, +0.37%) tries to track being short the U.S. dollar versus a basket of leading currencies. This one doesn't move a lot, but it fairly consistently goes up as the dollar goes down, and vice versa.
In this wild and crazy market, there are three important things you must do: Buy on pullbacks -- don't chase anything, no matter how tempting. Use a protective stop in case this rally gives up the ghost and the bear rears its ugly head again. And use a profit target and don't be greedy -- bag those gains and get out.