Future in boatbuilding

[cyclops]

All those in LOVE with automation, NEVER read the complaints, or hear about the loss of use or enjoyment of all the new cars by their owners. Get real, you people talk like Ostrich's. All 3 auto makers still CAN'T make a car right! WITH A COMPUTER.

[kmorin]

Cy, you didn't POST your response with lead pencil, or more retro, charcoal on strips of ground dried cellulose! Then you didn't have an individual walk to everyone's front door to give them a copy page that you'd hand written individually? What's UP?
Automation is just coming along like it did with James Watt and the steam engine, the Wrights and all of it's step-by-step with lots of mis-steps, trips, stumbles and falls.

I admit; I do design, install, sell, service and otherwise make a living automating offshore gas and oil production platforms and sell 3D CAD services as well as other controls engineering. Networked digital controls and HMI are just another set of systems -like wood and epoxy (recall early disasters?); plywood (WWII experiments saved this material); GRP - not exactly an historically accurate boating building material and when it first came out didn't produce good boats. If one sails do they use cotton with hemp lines? Nylon and dacron had some early versions that were a bit less than perfect.

But I sure do like my GPS in the fog among the rocks in SCentral AK, and I have used the radio, for which I'm also thankful, to call for help when my mechanical ignition went to south without me.

Tech happens- its just 'tools' with different handles.

Cheers,

[marshmat]

As irritating as it is when things go wrong in a high-tech computerized car, modern vehicles are in fact far more reliable than any previous ones. In 1980, could you possibly have imagined driving 120,000 km without a tune-up? How about the average econobox racking up a third of a million kilometres before hitting the salvage yard? This is routine now, with computers monitoring the health of the drivetrain and more sophisticated materials resisting rust and wear better. In both of the vehicles I drive (a plymouth and a ford) the computer and its kit have never failed. We've had transmission, front-end, clutch, brakes, switches... but never the computer stuff.

The same will eventually be true of boats. I don't believe fly-by-wire has much place in cars, no- not with so many incompetent motorists driving so close to you. But I would not dream of getting in an airliner, cruising at 600 knots, without knowing the computer's there to keep things in line. A single digital bus is far more reliable than the rat's-nest of wires you see in most boat consoles. Yes, there are false starts. The keeners, gadget freaks and early adopters willingly shoulder the brunt of those. The rest of us will see the benefits later, when we're ready for them.

Don't like tech? You can still sail around the world on an oak-timber square rigger, navigating with chronometer and sextant. You will always be free to choose your own boat and gear.

[nero]

What an awful thought! Microsoft enters into marine electronics.

[cyclops]

By the time we hear anything it is a done deal and already in widespread use in the boating industry. Powerboat nut that I am. I still love the quiet splash of the bow wave on a sailboat. I am odd.

[cyclops]

Kmorin. The wealthy old money families in the Adirondacks can no longer find or afford Linen sails for their small group of 1 class skiffs. Progress affects all of us. Pity.

[kmorin]

At the risk of facing the 'scathing' thread responses here, I'd offer another trend in boating that looks inevitable to me. Since shore land is so expensive and there is a fixed amount of this commodity which will make it more expensive as time goes on I'll bet trailer boats will get more common and become larger.

Marina's have to compete for other uses with the harbors, shoreland and slough property. They're often filled with waiting lists in populated areas now, they're hard to 'permit' with the eco-gov-police so they're less likely to be built new. The number of people who want to float is growing, just like the number of people, so the natural solution is trailer boats of one form or another.

Composites and CNC building methods along with experience and better PC marine engineering applications make lighter boats more feasable than they've been in the past. I predict the 40' class will be trailerable and that 'marinas' for this type of boat will be a parking lot (possibly with shed roof covered parking) a few miles from the water instead of a floating mooring or slip.

I believe the increase will occur mostly in the 28' to 40' range driven by the marina costs and answered by increased industry know-how providing lighter wt boats in this class.

Cheers,

[marshmat]

I'd have to agree with you on that, kmorin. Marina space is pricey. Fuel is also pricey, and getting more so rapidly.

The trouble with trailerable is twofold: weight and beam. Trailerable boats need to displace less than 4.6 tonnes (else you need a commercial licence to drive the large truck that pulls them) and span less than 8'6" in the beam (else you need a special permit to use public roads). They can be bigger, but not without huge cost increases.

I'm guessing we'll see a lot of long, thin, lightweight trailerable cruisers. Being long and thin, they'll also be more efficient and less thirsty than the big wide blocky cruisers we see today. Perhaps folding trimarans, etc. and other thin, light, efficient but strong and seaworthy boats.

Also relating to soaring fuel costs (and the fact that we'll start running out of oil soon), I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more full displacement power hulls and motorsailers replacing the big, thirsty planing hulls we see a lot of now. By going to 6 knots instead of 20, you can cut your power needs from, say, 700hp to 100hp and your fuel consumption accordingly. And you get to see the birds, fish and shorelines along the way, without your wake tipping over the fleet of sailing dinghies.

Another thing about trailerable boats: They seem to get used a lot more than the big ones, at least in my area. People with 16 to 25 foot trailer cruisers are out just about every weekend around here.... meanwhile, there are a LOT of $100k + sailing and motor yachts that I have never seen leave their slips.

[Tim B]

A few interesting points, which I would like to say something about.

First idea:
As a designer I have been considering the possibility of an integrated monitoring system on a yacht for some time. But it is just that, monitoring. No fly-by wire, no computer-doing-it-all, just the system helping you make decisions by putting all the data in front of you in one place. There is also nothing new about this, it has been possible for a boat-owner since 1984 (with careful selection of parts).

I don't think Microsoft will get that far into the marine market, in all honesty. There are two reasons, firstly, the system, since it would be proprietry, would simply be far too cumbersome for small ship-board computers. Also, their primary architecture is CISC which uses a huge amount of power (40x that of RISC). The two systems I suspect we'll see will be ARM-based; perhaps RISC-OS systems due to their efficiency; or Linux due to it's availability. Being able to run on a relatively small hard-disc gives great advantage in both price and power consumption.

What we will see is different design/build teams designing different systems to do effectively the same job, but in different situations.

Second idea:

Long, thin boats? you lose stability in roll. So you put outriggers on it and make the main hull even narrower. You also make it light. Now one thing that sells yachts is speed. So we have an awful lot of light-weight high-performance tris around. this to me sounds just a little worrying. Are you sure that everyone could handle that sort of boat if it were affordable?

Cheers,

Tim B.

[kmorin]

Tim, my original remarks were about an idea of the future of boat building and design focused on the facts of the (digital) market place which will happen in the marine market. The single screen DAS (data acquisition system) will happen as more and more of the market participants move to some LAN standards- I predict it will be TCP/IP and CAT5 based; lets call it “marine Ethernet” for this purpose. The topic/thread shifted slightly with my comparison to the PC market history where the shift happened as someone reacted to the comparison as content. My use of Redmond’s Rangers as a comparison wasn’t intended to claim Microsoft will try to participate in marine integration.

Microsoft won’t be a player in the marine market as a hardware product or applications vendor –but PC’s still use their OS which will provide many single screen HMI’s like Wonderware which are now so sophisticated as applications the few left in the field will be applied aboard. The steps I was trying to list were those needed for the market and the boat owner to accept or embrace. My remarks about MS were just to illustrate that the successful vendors will be those who publicly offer their standards early –not the proprietary protocol vendors. The most famous historic example implied was the Apple OS versus the Window’s OS. Technically, the Apple OS delivers more punch for the costs but is a tiny part of the market because they insisted on proprietary OS and connectivity. Gates &Co. went the other route, as will the successful marine network and DAS vendors, and the rest is history.

I don’t Linux isn’t viable, at least not yet, because no one can get sufficient return to afford the time to solve the huge array of naturally occurring growth and interaction conflicts. Which lawn looks more nicely kept? Your privately owned lawn (?) or the littered greens next to all public highways?

I wasn’t attempting to justify MS, their OS or any facet of their often headachy products instead I was stressing the future of boating will include a successful series of vendors who allow their hardware to ‘talk’ to a DAS PC application. SCADA (supervisory CONTROL and data acquisition) will happen when the network (wire) controls become reliable enough to surplant much more expensive hydraulic hose or cables. Industry runs multi-million dollar turbines by “wire” as the term has been used here, everyday all day without the slightest millisecond of pause or problem. My first remarks focused on DAS but the topics moved to a presumption of SCADA with making much differentiation. One will come first then the other will follow just as no one could build a boat of glass fiber and poly-resins, and engines couldn’t ever be made small enough to power a boat, so the future of boats will include the same progress that has happened in industry and the PC office.

Regarding shapes and marinas, I was observing that the growth of mass popular boating happened concurrently, in the US at least, with the availability of ‘parking’ space. No marina space = not near as much private ownership of boats. Given the ongoing popularity I suggest the momentum of the buying public will continue a demand for new boats, which will find no slip space and will have to resort to hard berthing inland. So regardless of what happens to the design response to the implication of lack of slips on the water- the paved parking lot type marina is a logical step in the future of boating.

I’m sure there are implications for design like beam and all up displacement, but the other side of that argument is that a municipality may decide to dedicate a short (1-2 mile) road and allow various service companies to move wider, heavier, and long loads over this ‘utility corridor’. I’m merely saying the paved harbor will solve the waterfront costs issue, and I agree there are all sorts of design implications, but keeping to existing cross country highway standards aren’t necessarily going to influence all the boats that make the trip from water to dry berth inland.

Re; your remarks about the stability attached to hull shape. Longer leaner hulls can have just a stable a roll moment as a beamier hull as you know it more a matter of arrangement of masses designed into the boat rather than an unavoidable conclusion of proportion. If you time the roll of a towering 3 deck plastic bikini freighter with a wide beam but tons of mass 15’ off the waterline it will be much more tender at 30 degrees than a narrower hull that has only a single level with all its masses at or near the waterline.

Also, I don’t think tri’s will be an automatic outgrowth of the paved marina unless they folded without structural loss. If their acceptance increases demand sufficiently and they overcome the folding cross beam construction issues, they may well be very good solution to narrow but low and more stable yet transition to ‘legal’ widths for trailering without deterioration of performance on the water. On the other hand multi hulls are gaining in popularity and they take up two slips for their length and will probably accelerate the loss of on the water moorage.

I mainly wanted to clear up the first remarks direction in response to the future of boating.

Cheers,
kmorin

[Tim B]

hummmm. I see what you're saying, but I'm not sure I totally agree with it. The problem with paved marinas is that land, especially water-front land costs an awful lot of money. A large number of British marinas have a large paved storage area, but would you really want to lift you're boat in and out. You could only sail twice a year to justify the cost each time!!!

On the operating systems front, I don't doubt that you can control a boat from computer indefinitely in perfect weather, but some of us like to know that the computer isn't actually necessary. Don't forget, you're putting a lot of computer very near salt water - dangerous. Also, my opinions on Linux are largely based on my experience with the operating system - stable and easy to use. In comparison, Microsoft and Apple are prohibitively expensive. Incidentally, which problems would Linux have to over-come that any other OS wouldn't?

Stability wise, I am saying that to increase speed you need to carry more sail, at a fixed beam this means more lead (or canting keel). This increase in displacement for a fixed beam and draught, needs increased length. The problem is not as much the achievable stability, but the hydrostatic stability from which one starts with a limited beam. Personally, I'd prefer a beamier boat with less displacement. They tend to be faster ( due to power/weight) and more stable.

Trimaran cross-beams have been made to fold very successfully in the past and there is no reason why they shouldn't be considered in future.

Tim B.

[kmorin]

Tim B wrote

The problem with paved marinas is that land, especially water-front land costs an awful lot of money.

This is true and yet misses what I'm speculating will happen. I agree the land is too expensive because of the increase in population and competition for that space. The land I'm describing is from one to two miles INLAND. Land costs decrease in relative proximity to the shore, therefore the 'afffordable' hard berth will be a few miles inland and may be serviced by a specially built or dedicated lanes 'utility' roadway to and from.

A large number of British marinas have a large paved storage area, but would you really want to lift you're boat in and out. You could only sail twice a year to justify the cost each time!!!

I've been discussing power boats since in the US they represent about 100:1 ratio of recreation boats. Launching and hauling a power boat is much easier than a sailboat, especially in the >25' <40' range which is where I was predicting the hard berthing can relieve the most moorage while allowing the number of boats to increase.

Don't forget, you're putting a lot of computer very near salt water - dangerous.

I build industrial control systems for gas turbines and offshore platforms including rooms that get hosed down, hardened PC's are a commodity item no longer exotic, all parts are conformal coated and they have MTBF of plural k's of hours. Also, these devices are availiable rated to NEMA 7 (Class 1 Div 1) NEC areas, (newer rating Zone 0) so if they're inpenetrable by gas, they' take moisture in the air in stride. The future of boating in this area AS REGARDS hardware is here. The pediction I'm making is about the vendor's gradual participation in the software and networking aspects; hardware is ready today.
RE: OS is a 'no cost' software item relative to the value of a pair of 350 hp Cat diesels and 20k$ worth of nav electronics. The fuel filters cost more, the updated chart files for the GPS/Plotte cost more than an OS license. Aceptance and market penetration will govern, (ie. AutoCAD isn't the best CAD package but as most widely accepted its the most used and defines standards- so with MS. Its not good or the best, its just most widely used)

Linux is a very fine OS, my remarks were that there is no thirty-signifigant-figure-annual-revenue corporation's staff ready to support it -so it will lag the general market in development. In context, would I recieve more support for the purchase of a design for a high tech fin or apperature for my super sailing yacht from Tim B at Marine Design, or from a publicly posted design on a web forum? The obvious answer is that you could AFFORD to support you design but the forum could only take what time is can spare; same with all aspects of all markets, software included.

Stability wise,.....

I agree, and wasn't envisioning the future of sailboats, only power boats. Inland parking leading to more narrow for any length power boat was the implication, I should have limited my remarks. I agree with the points you've made regarding sailboats and inland parking as impacting the design of that type of boat, but I don't think the 40' sailboat will be hauled then trailered for a few miles regularly!

Trimaran cross-beams have been made to fold very successfully in the past....

Yes Tim B they have, but again, I was disussing power boats as the most likely to be parked inland ( a mile or more on that less expensive land) and then ASSUMED that was the point of the remarks to which I was responding. Showing again how poorly the "A" word can affect someone's reasoning. A few early powered tri's had beam failure at the hinge joint to the beam material, something I agree can be overcome by quality design.

I think I'll make another prediction

Cheers,
kmorin

[kmorin]

I think another trend that will increase in small power boats (note the limit of scope of this remark about the Future Boating!) especially planing boats is that welded aluminum will increase market percentage.

The reasons for this prediction are that super precise PC marine design software applications have made CNC (computer numerical control) automatic plasma or lazer cutting of sheet metal parts affordable AND welding equipment has improved to the point where robotic assembly will become affordable as well.

Aluminum has many qualities that make it a fine boat building material but the historic labor component has often priced it out of the market. Most designs today for small planing boats in welded aluminum are a bit industrial or mechanical looking most often because the cost of labor to make more attractive marine shapes is prohibitive.

I predict this will change, that increased design aids will allow more attractive boats to be built more affordably which will attract more buyers and fuel other rounds of increases in shapeliness with associated cost reductions.

As the offshore boater enjoys lower fuel costs for the lighter boat they will also have lower insurance costs as the material is stonger in collision and more resistant to fire than GRP. I believe these technilogical advances and market forces coupled with the history of resale of glass boats will make the welded aluminum boat more popular and more widely built in the future.

Cheers,
kmorin

[cyclops]

Aluminum boats are totally recycleable. Wood and fibreglass 0.

[Baldur]

I believe that plastics ARE the future of boat constuction.

You can checkout my past thread on HDPE here:
Hulls made of HDPE