"CRUDE" oil, an absolute must see program !!!

[Meanz Beanz]

Its become its own industry..

[masalai]

To which I have been suckered in - - - again hehehehe

[Meanz Beanz]

This is an eight part video... I think I once quoted the line here that "mans greatest failing is his inability to understand the exponential function". This video shows you why... and yes it pertains to energy, so stay with it. All will become clear when the penny bounces off the grey matter.



Enjoy...




Play All...

[masalai]

Where is #2 to 8?

[Meanz Beanz]

Follow the play all link at the bottom and on the right under playlist you will see the rest of the links in order

[Meanz Beanz]

P.S.... grab scotch or bundy or what ever you're poison is and sip slowly then focus on the numbers and the likely time lines... the vids where done in 2001.. then best consensus guesses projected peak at 2004... we now think peak was 2005 (not a bad consensus really!)... now think about the bottles... and pour a big nip. (it will make more sense when you have watched it!)

[Boston]

4 million barrels a day is what we need to replace,

and you would need about 6 million barrels of alcohol to replace that
thing to remember is that alcohol has a lower BTU equivalent than gasoline

a gallon of best ethanol contains approx. 80,000 BTUs ( depends on the purity ). A gallons of unleaded regular contains about 119,000 BTUs. As a result, a standard barrel (42 gallons) of ethanol is worth about 28 gallons of gasoline.

however cellulosic alcohol has a higher embodied energy than more typical feed stocks and so the actual return may be even less beneficial unless alternative energy sources are applied during its production

oh
and I know what you mean about that "what do we think" thread
its amazing to hear the industry spin over and over again with no consideration for the actual data nor the consensus

cheers
B

[masalai]

I may send the link to our Kevin Rudd - will someone see to it that Obama also gets an education in simple mathematics & exponential stuff too?......

[Meanz Beanz]

Did you watch the video Boston...? The key concept is the doubling time and 50% resource consumption. The bottle example is important, apply it to the oil situation... we are now at around 50% resource consumption of oil, the growth rate in consumption was 7% but has fallen thankfully. 7% produces a doubling time of 10 years... 10 years from 50% or peak oil, which we now believe to be 2005, every year we go without bettering 2005 numbers makes it more certain that we will not better them and helps confirm 2005 as peak. Anyway 10years from then is 2015... but we have slowed so say its 2020. The thing is we don't get to use all the oil for a number of practical reasons, for a start as demand outstrips supply price sky rockets forcing conservation and alternates. Anywhoo... the point is that the shortage problem lies well within any of the proposed times lines for CO2 reductions. Nobody say coal until you have watched the video... We need renewable, we need something with the ability to deliver a quantum leap from oils potential and on top of that we need to embrace the idea of zero growth before this place becomes one giant Easter Island... I fear that there is actually already to many of us, doom and gloom... no nothing so subjective... its the math's of the exponential curve against finite resource supply (of all sorts). So I say to the climate changers... this problem will result in more deaths much sooner that any climate change, whats more if you solve this issue you solve the CO2 issue and remove any man induced climate change risk real or perceived. We need to focus on the real issue here and stop squabbling about targets that are so far into the future the actually energy supply renders them pointless. Unless some one has messed up the numbers we probably have less than five years or so before this issue goes critical, by that I mean very expensive energy. Our whole existence is predicated on the availably of cheap energy... even if we find adequate replacements the time lines are impossibly tight, a smooth transition without major disruption is not possible. Then on top of that we need to embrace the concept of zero growth.... in fact negative growth is probably required for a good period of time to get us back to what is sustainable. I can think of only one quick fix, that is rapid population reduction, and it only applies if you have more nukes than your neighbour. You can be sure that someone, somewhere in the halls of power understands this issue... what the contingency plans are we can only guess.

Think I am being mellow dramatic? Watch the video and think about our resources on this planet and our population and economic growth rates. Think about the bottle example and just how close to midday its was at 3% full... Think about the maths and how it demonstrates that find another entire earth will not forestall the issue all that long at all. We need to stop growing, we need to go completely renewable in everything we do, we even need to start shrinking and we need to do it now. Not for risk of climate change.... just to survive. Have you heard a politician talk about this? Nah I didn't think so... its not even on the radar. Push will come to shove on this one, you can guarantee it.

[Boston]

ya Obummer as I call him is a bit scary

at least even he knows he cant possibly keep all his campaign promises

you would love his campaign history as well
and not just the presidential

as far as alcohol is concerned it only works if you consider there is enough grain goes into a single gas tank of fuel to feed a man for a year
I got the numbers round here somewhere
and just happen to have tons of extra grain
which we dont

I joined an alcohol fuel group a while back to learn about all that
was most informative

the solutions to the present energy issues are not easy
but they are imperative
and neither the socialist democratic party
nor the republican corporate oligarchy
has any clue as to how to work together and find some middle ground

meanwhile
we're melting
fast

Oh
Ill go check it out
but I need a few beer's before I do
and Im always skeptical of industry sources
although no one is going to know more about resource development than the industry itself
B

[Meanz Beanz]

Originally Posted by masalai

I may send the link to our Kevin Rudd - will someone see to it that Obama also gets an education in simple mathematics & exponential stuff too?......

Mas... everyone needs to make sure that at least two more people see it. That way we will have the exponential curve working for us. I thought that I understood the implications of the exponential curve but that video made me realise that the issue a little more pressing than even I'd considered.

Can some one translate this to Chinese and Indian?

Think about what happened on Easter Island... a virus going critical in your body, cancer... it all works the same way....

[Meanz Beanz]

Originally Posted by Boston

and Im always skeptical of industry sources

Its a lecture in maths... with practical application. Its difficult to argue with and the only arguable variables barely impact the outcome even on the most optimistic assumptions.

[Meanz Beanz]

Originally Posted by Boston

as far as alcohol is concerned it only works if you consider there is enough grain goes into a single gas tank of fuel to feed a man for a year

Who mentioned alcohol? Besides drinking a little... yikes man.. focus, forget about the climate for a second... believe it or not this will hit us harder sooner. How do I know that?... HISTORICALLY WE HAVE NEVER FOCUSED ON THE RIGHT ISSUE AHEAD OF IT BECOMING A REAL PROBLEM, WE ARE ALWAYS BLINDSIDED BY THE REAL ISSUE'S... case in point, the financial crisis. I have been posting on its inevitability since 2001, not that I am that smart but there has been a whole host of people who are and have been warning for a very long time. We where all nuts and all wrong... until that is it started to unfold and even now people don't get the full scope of the issue. Round two will be compounded by the energy issue... this one we cannot afford to get wrong yet there is no sign of leadership on it to date.

[masalai]

Most Indians can understand English (after all, they/many of the Indians claim that they are more English than the British), but their broadband is very narrow and unreliable with frequent power outages as load is rotated around - usually 2 hours on and 6 hours off..... The footpaths are littered with 6 hp honda's delivering minimal electricity to many trading businesses..... The fuel costs exceed the cost of "floor staff/salespeople/shop assistants.....

[Meanz Beanz]

LOL, yeah Mas I can imagine!... I was being a bit silly on purpose... my point being that if they don't get it, we as a planet don't get it and no voluntary solution will work. Just how do you tell China and India that they can't live like we have and indeed tell everyone that we all need to find a lower plateau from which we can start to build sustainability. For that matter how do you tell Joe USA that life needs to be cut back to the basics until we get smarter about how we do things? Can you see that happening.... I can't?