"CRUDE" oil, an absolute must see program !!!

[rant]Yeah I have been listening to that spin since 30 dollar oil. All the way up its has been speculators, fear premium etc etc. They had it wrong then and they have it wrong now supply is starting its inexorable march down while demand is marching up as per the curves I described in my earlier post.

Technology has improved markedly for oil extraction but all that means is we can get the oil up faster and maintain flow rate. That's not to say there is anymore available so all it means is that the drop off will be faster (the back side of the bell curve will be steeper) The downside is when they push a well too hard they can put it into shock and reduce the net amount of oil that they can ultimately recover. It looks like the Meskins did just that with Cantarell, now the decline is spectacular.

The worst thing that can happen to any market is the government. The current market gyrations are a result of government action, they stabilise nothing and screw up everything all the while telling you its for your own good. If they stop screwing with the money supply the markets will sort the damage out and stabilise. However if they continue, which they will, things will get worse, which they will. Australia is currently growing its money supply at 23% (Bloomberg) and we have pollies on the telly scratching their heads over "inflation". No chit Sherlock, even a five year old can tell you that making that much more of something makes it worth less.

If you make restrictions on who can buy, how long they can hold all you will succeed in doing is drying up capital for industries that badly need it. This had nothing to do with shareholders per-say but more to do with the debt levels standing behind the stocks (leverage, margin lending etc) and hedge funds exploiting that in a predatory fashion (susceptible to short selling raids ala the speculation over ABC Learning). Remove the leverage and you remove the volatility. Where does the leverage come from... ? oh yeah that's right 23% per annum increase in the money supply by our ultra easy Central Bank might have something to do with it. Never ask government to solve a problem they made in the first place.

Immature investors control diddley swat in terms of capital, sure Johny daytrader bails out every weekend but keep in mind the stats say 80% of these characters lose almost all they bring to the table. Think of them as topping up your super, they certainly help mine out. They help provide liquidity to the market which ultimately makes it a safer market, just not usually for them!

The man in the street pays, yes always, if is not tax its inflation which by the way is no mystery its what central banks do, they are a one trick pony. The more money they create the wealthier those at the top of the chain become (government & the financial industry love it + you might have noticed the 'inexplicable' wealth divide that has been emerging in Oz) and slowly but surely the money slips out of the man on the streets back pocket. Its so subtle that they have been effectively taxed with out them realizing where it went... governments nirvana.[/rant]

 

jumping in a little late here,electric cars ,,ok ,but when you plug them in to recharge,,,someone is throwing in another shovle of coal at the river(power plant ,,) ,,ethanal ,,a good idea ,,causes more pollution to produce than a barral of oil,,,no answers here ,longliner

 

What if its a Geothermal plant? + The thing gets 80mpg in petrol electric mode, that's a big saving in fuel and would be even better if it where diesel electric.

 

we have no geothermo plants here that can keep up with rising power demands,,,,but thats not to say it cant happen,,Im glad some people still worry about it though,,,,,thanks beanz,longliner

 

No No No No No No, Yes (I love some of the characters in "The Vicar of Dibbley")
Frosty, On post 104 - - - It goes beyond that, it is all those young puppies, still wet behind the ears & nappy rash, force fed theory till their ears pop, can talk the talk but not a dime worth of intelligence or experience.

Lightning fast reflexes and quick typing to keep with/parallel with any market movement. This forces exaggerated shifts and near suicidal panic for anyone dealing on the markets slightly older than necessary to shave...

Crash all windows machines and sanity WILL return as these hyper-reactive fools will fall on the floors of stock & commodities exchanges in a dead panic. Things will return to some level of stable sanity during the downtime

 

LOL yeah this is nothing to do with over leveraged boomers now is it (a boomer which I am but no leverage )... The puppies ain't got the wealth, it is the boomers & brain dead super funds that are the bulk of this market. The only hyper active puppies to worry about are those running hedge funds, now they are source of fun just take a look at a chart of AED Oil

 

It's the academically "qualified" babies, with no experience and no understanding what chaos they are causing via market instability so "they can close up", who play with that money & cause economic hardship. They have no brains, balls, or common sense....

 

Nope, its the leverage no matter who's hands it is in that is at the core of this. That's why futures markets are shark pit's, remove the leverage and no one is forced to sell if the fundamental situation still holds good. Add leverage, or more to the point to much leverage and any correction can fuel margin calls and liquidation. One great irony here is that those using margin are making their stock available to be loaned out for short sales. A hedge fund can borrow a margined stock holders stock to sell against them and drive the stock price down forcing the stock holder to a margin call and potential liquidation thus creating the supply of stock at a lower value so that the hedge fund can then buy and return the loaned stock. Lack of leverage/margin defuses this situation. Hedge funds are desperate to maintain profitability in the current market environment, they appear to have turned predator. Hence I will not use margin and make sure that any agreement with a broker precludes authority to loan my stock.

The thing is excessive margin lending will fuel a simlar dynamic with out hedge fund games, all you need is a trigger as we have recently seen from the Urapeeing markets.

 

I will bow to your incisive wisdom, Thanks Heinz... . . .I still reckon all the market babies with billion dollar investment funds at their disposal should be given six strokes of the 6 ft rattan every morning before they start trading for the day

 

Theres all kinds of players, all of them know what they are doing. You cant be a player without confidence real or not.

Hienz will do what he thinks is best of course. The market must have differing strategy to work.

I still say the market is too free and in the future ,--maybe far future it will not be as free.

The market is simply being able to invest in a company you have confidence in, the company also benefits from your money. But being able to trade so heavily it can bankrupt the company or end up being owned by some one else at the end of the day is hardly good for anyone but a few.

 

Well put Mister Frosty, sadly I am told to spread it elsewhere first? - - Dunno where? so here are some tokens of my appreciation in being able to read some very wise and sage words... :::::::::: ::::::::::

 

The market in total is not as free as you probably believe but that's another story.

Stocks are a secondary market they only effect the company directly in terms of their ability to raise capital or if the company directly owns the stock as an investment. If a stock in a company with a sound business model is driven down to an unrealistic level and there is no desperate need to raise capital it should have very little impact on the daily business. ABC Learning will not close centers because the stock copped a shellacking per-say. If they do it will have more to do with their debt obligation and how that is managed. The market is sending a clear message that they want to see conservative debt levels in companies, that's what they will respond to. Trading will bankrupt no one but the foolish, restricting trading on the other hand will bankrupt companies and severely limit the ability of both new and existing companies to raise capital. Stop the tidal wave of newly minted money that the worlds central banks are creating and you will contain inflation and curtail volatility, its that simple. The more aggressive CB's are running at close to 50% PA (Russia) the laggards are running in the teens and Oz is now in the 20s... it's insane. Welcome to the 1970's only its global and on steroids, that's why gold is knocking on the door of $1000oz and a good part of the reason that oil is fudging around the $100 mark. Global stagflation MII here we come, ya think they would take a lesson from Mugabe.

Masalai you might have a point about the hedge fund operators (the young guns), they seem to be missing some major fundamental shifts in favour of short term profit opportunities. No doubt we are staring down the barrel of greater hedge-fund regulation but that will only occur after the damage has been well and truly done. These guys are the kings of leverage and don't it fling them right out of the pond when it goes wrong. More coming in 2008/09.... this is going to be a show they will not forget in a while.

Anyway enough this is to much like a day at the orifice.

 

Latest reports lead me to believe that the US is about to experience a "zero gravity" period as the greenback is sold off to place elsewhere. As I predicted earlier - expect the D (Depression) word as Recession is almost confirmed (3 months of negative growth). Housing DOWN, greenback DOWN, sentiment DOWN, oil UP (bad for US economy) gold UP (lots of other people are bracing/hedging/exiting cash), lots of "nervous nellies" out there as markets are very jittery/volatile...

Trouble is, someone in the whitehouse sneezes,,, Australia, and many other countries, catch flu... What did I just hear - - sounded like "Aaaaatchew!", - - is that German for something?

 

Yes, in fact if you do the stats as they did years ago before they got tricky about things they are in recession now (2 Q's negative) and depression is a real danger, some say unavoidable. Either way its a stinking pile that needs to compost for a while before you will grow much out of it. When it bites it will bite Asia and there by Oz so yes I agree, thing is exactly when ? These things can have tremendous momentum, 2009 through 2012 is looking like the crisis window. Lots of cheap Catamarans for sale if you still have the where with all to run one It will be the tale of two Australias, the SE corner will take it hard, the farmers and miners should do OK then good again. We have seen enough evidence of that trend already.

 

What is your feeling on housing/land (Buderim with a STUNNING view from 300 ft ASL? or Brisbane, Mc Mansion type suburb around 70m ASL?